Any Early Thoughts on the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

[Category5Kaiju]

I've decided to create this thread a bit early given there's, quite frankly, some uncertainty in whether the 2021 season is completely over or if it has a bit ammunition left. However, in the event that we do not get anything significant anytime soon (and subsequently would properly have us looking forward in time to when we can get busy tracking systems once again), I would like to ask what your very early, preliminary thoughts are in terms of what we *could* see next season, based on what we are seeing now, near future projections, long term projections, and perhaps historical precedent? I personally think that we could see another at least above average season assuming this La Nina becomes decently potent and lengthy, and the WAM becomes strong again next fall (rendering any warm ENSO events harder to accomplish), but I could be wrong, and hearing from others and what they think would, as always, be fun and useful.

[aspen]

I think there’s a much higher chance of a warm-neutral ENSO or an El Niño in 2022, seeing how this La Niña had two landfalling EPac hurricanes and hasn’t behaved that much like a Nina…yet. Also, we’re overdue for an El Niño. A triple-dip La Niña isn’t impossible, however, so I think it’s a coin toss as to whether the ENSO state will be favorable next year or not.

The dead October in the Atlantic and how quickly activity shut down despite a La Niña has made me think that the background state has changed in a way that is suppressing the basin, even though we know that some of the other factors include a low ITCZ and destructive interference between the Nina and MJO. However, this is such a rare and abnormal alignment of various sub-seasonal variations in a year with a favorable ENSO state and 20 NS by the end of September that I’m doubtful it happened purely by chance.

[Teban54]

I think there’s a much higher chance of a warm-neutral ENSO or an El Niño in 2022, seeing how this La Niña had two landfalling EPac hurricanes and hasn’t behaved that much like a Nina…yet. Also, we’re overdue for an El Niño. A triple-dip La Niña isn’t impossible, however, so I think it’s a coin toss as to whether the ENSO state will be favorable next year or not.

The dead October in the Atlantic and how quickly activity shut down despite a La Niña has made me think that the background state has changed in a way that is suppressing the basin, even though we know that some of the other factors include a low ITCZ and destructive interference between the Nina and MJO. However, this is such a rare and abnormal alignment of various sub-seasonal variations in a year with a favorable ENSO state and 20 NS by the end of September that I’m doubtful it happened purely by chance.

While there's no concrete evidence to back it up, I suspect we may see a 2012-like scenario of a failed El Nino.

2021 is looking somewhat like 2011 on steroids, coming off after a hyperactive season and a moderate La Nina, with a high number of storms like the preceding season but lower quality overall.

[CFLHurricane]

I think it’s way too early to hazard an educated guess for next season. But my uneducated forecast is for a mediocre season causing much wailing and gnashing of teeth on here

[aspen]

I think there’s a much higher chance of a warm-neutral ENSO or an El Niño in 2022, seeing how this La Niña had two landfalling EPac hurricanes and hasn’t behaved that much like a Nina…yet. Also, we’re overdue for an El Niño. A triple-dip La Niña isn’t impossible, however, so I think it’s a coin toss as to whether the ENSO state will be favorable next year or not.

The dead October in the Atlantic and how quickly activity shut down despite a La Niña has made me think that the background state has changed in a way that is suppressing the basin, even though we know that some of the other factors include a low ITCZ and destructive interference between the Nina and MJO. However, this is such a rare and abnormal alignment of various sub-seasonal variations in a year with a favorable ENSO state and 20 NS by the end of September that I’m doubtful it happened purely by chance.

While there's no concrete evidence to back it up, I suspect we may see a 2012-like scenario of a failed El Nino.

2021 is looking somewhat like 2011 on steroids, coming off after a hyperactive season and a moderate La Nina, with a high number of storms like the preceding season but lower quality overall.

The 2011 comparisons really fall apart after September, because even that season was able to take advantage of the -ENSO base state and produce a WCar major in its October, as well as TS Sean in November.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think there’s a much higher chance of a warm-neutral ENSO or an El Niño in 2022, seeing how this La Niña had two landfalling EPac hurricanes and hasn’t behaved that much like a Nina…yet. Also, we’re overdue for an El Niño. A triple-dip La Niña isn’t impossible, however, so I think it’s a coin toss as to whether the ENSO state will be favorable next year or not.

The dead October in the Atlantic and how quickly activity shut down despite a La Niña has made me think that the background state has changed in a way that is suppressing the basin, even though we know that some of the other factors include a low ITCZ and destructive interference between the Nina and MJO. However, this is such a rare and abnormal alignment of various sub-seasonal variations in a year with a favorable ENSO state and 20 NS by the end of September that I’m doubtful it happened purely by chance.

Here's the thing though: there's been quite the comparison between the conditions now and in 2007, and 2007 was a moderate La Nina. We still need to wait to know for sure, but operationally-speaking 2021 could end up near the weak-moderate threshold (3-4 region especially). A later peaking moderate-strength La Nina I would think would make the subsequent year harder to achieve an El Nino, no?

[Yellow Evan]

Unless we get an El Niño or the WAM calms down (could see either happening or both), probably another above average season somehow.

[zal0phus]

I've had a hunch that it'll be a relatively quiet season in terms of named storms, I feel like we'll reach K to M. That said I feel like we will still see at least one rather severe major hurricane, I definitely don't see any Category 5s on the table though.

[Iceresistance]

El Nino is my 2022 Prediction

[DestinHurricane]

Its been a while since i've thought about the tropics or even logged in here, as I'm in Ohio now.

But my thoughts are that we'll see an El Nino or warm neutral, but not a super El Nino. With that it'll be an average to slightly below average season, the Atlantic simply cant keep pumping out busy seasons. The longer El-Nino is put off, the stronger the eventual Nino will be. So if we stay in neutral or La Nina in 2022, there is possibility for a Super El Nino in 2023.

[FireRat]

I have a hunch 2022 could prove to be quite an unpredictable, surprise type of season, it might end up being a high TS number season with a few strong hurricanes, yet one or 2 of the hurricanes may become a monstrous Cat 5. 2022 might end up feeling slow early on compared to 2020 and even this year, although we may still get to 20+ NS again (since the NHC has the technology and ability to spot more tropical storms these days, many seasons since 2010 pumped out 19+ NS). Peak season could be something to behold in terms of quality. Late season might also be bonkers, especially October, contrary to 2021.

I'd say 2022 may be like a weird cauldron mix of 1842, 1902, 1926, 1962, 1992, 1998 and 2012. Just my very early thoughts. For those of you familiar with my off-beat threads on this kind of stuff, I plan to go more in depth as soon as January or February.

[Shell Mound]

I'd say 2022 may be like a weird cauldron mix of 1842, 1902, 1926, 1962, 1992, 1998 and 2012. Just my very early thoughts. For those of you familiar with my off-beat threads on this kind of stuff, I plan to go more in depth as soon as January or February.

This composite shows all the major hurricane tracks for those years (I added black lines and/or dots to denote the approximate tracks and/or occurrences of the notable systems in 1842, which was apparently a very active and eventful year). It is interesting to note that these years tended to feature significant hurricane impacts on a) the Gulf Coast between Sabine Pass and St. Marks and b) on the Atlantic coast between Cape Fear and New York City. This means that 2022 could continue the recent trend of impacts on those regions, unfortunately, as we have seen with storms such as Florence, Michael, Isaias, Laura, Sally, Delta, Zeta, and Ida. Interestingly, 1842 and 2012 both produced hurricane-force winds in the Mid-Atlantic region, including significant storm surge in NYC. 1842 also yielded one of Tallahassee’s (and the Big Bend’s) worst hurricane impacts on record. For the most part, the seven aforementioned years tended to avoid the Florida peninsula, but the exceptions—1926 and 1992—produced two of the most catastrophic hurricanes in South Florida on record. 1998, like 1926, also stands out for its tragically high number of fatalities, owing to Georges and Mitch.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

We're really overdue for an inactive season. My guess is a warm-ENSO develops and we have a slower season.

[aspen]

I think 2022 will finally end the streak of an early-starting Atlantic season. It seemed that 2020’s base state (very easy TCG) bled into early 2021, where we saw four storms pop up before July 1st. I’m guessing whatever problems 2021 is facing that are due to the La Niña will continue into the early parts of the 2022 season.

[Shell Mound]

We're really overdue for an inactive season. My guess is a warm-ENSO develops and we have a slower season.

Aside from 2017 and 2020, most of the seasons since 2016 have been generally slightly above average, ACE-wise, so I don’t think that we are “due.” The late nineteenth century likely featured longer periods of enhanced activity without a break. Apart from Irma, Jose, Maria, Lorenzo, Teddy, and Sam, long-tracking Category-4+ systems have generally been absent from the MDR. By contrast, the late 1800s (in all probability) and the period of 1995–2012 featured a much higher seasonal frequency of such storms. At this rate, I’m going to “buck the trend” and posit another slightly-above-average season in 2022. A strong Niño is likely to develop in time for 2023, however.

[ElectricStorm]

I think there might be some storms

[Yellow Evan]

We're really overdue for an inactive season. My guess is a warm-ENSO develops and we have a slower season.

Aside from 2017 and 2020, most of the seasons since 2016 have been generally slightly above average, ACE-wise, so I don’t think that we are “due.” The late nineteenth century likely featured longer periods of enhanced activity without a break. Apart from Irma, Jose, Maria, Lorenzo, Teddy, and Sam, long-tracking Category-4+ systems have generally been absent from the MDR. By contrast, the late 1800s (in all probability) and the period of 1995–2012 featured a much higher seasonal frequency of such storms. At this rate, I’m going to “buck the trend” and posit another slightly-above-average season in 2022. A strong Niño is likely to develop in time for 2023, however.

ENSO was really volatile in the late 1800’s so despite a super favorable background stare, there probably were a few quiet seasons in there.

[cajungal]

Hoping 2022 gives us a much needed break here on the gulf coast, esp Louisiana. The last 2 years have been brutal for us

[weeniepatrol]

el nino

[Hypercane_Kyle]

We're really overdue for an inactive season. My guess is a warm-ENSO develops and we have a slower season.

Aside from 2017 and 2020, most of the seasons since 2016 have been generally slightly above average, ACE-wise, so I don’t think that we are “due.” The late nineteenth century likely featured longer periods of enhanced activity without a break. Apart from Irma, Jose, Maria, Lorenzo, Teddy, and Sam, long-tracking Category-4+ systems have generally been absent from the MDR. By contrast, the late 1800s (in all probability) and the period of 1995–2012 featured a much higher seasonal frequency of such storms. At this rate, I’m going to “buck the trend” and posit another slightly-above-average season in 2022. A strong Niño is likely to develop in time for 2023, however.

Yeah but I mean like, geniuenly dead. Like 2009 or 2013 levels of inactive.