Possible development over the SW Caribbean

[zzh]

GENESIS050, AL, L, , , , , 75, 2021, DB, O, 2021102700, 9999999999, , 050, , , , GENESIS, , AL752021

ASCAT shows a closed circulation.

[cycloneye]

zzh , I think SW Caribbean fits better than W.Caribbean for the title due to the location north of Panama and east of Nicaragua. I edited.

[LarryWx]

Although past the peak W Caribbean season for genesis (peak ends around October 20th), October 21st through about November 10th remains somewhat active there with the November 1-10 period, alone, having had 13 geneses since 1851, or a respectable one every 13 years. So, this bears watching. That being said, the 12Z EPS is boring zzzzzz. The last one was Ida of 2009.

[Spacecoast]

Although past the peak W Caribbean season for genesis (peak ends around October 20th), October 21st through about November 10th remains somewhat active there with the November 1-10 period, alone, having had 13 geneses since 1851, or a respectable one every 13 years. So, this bears watching. That being said, the 12Z EPS is boring zzzzzz. The last one was Ida of 2009.

18Z HH GFS basically drops this, (maxxing out @1006 mb).

18z GEFS ensembles always seem to have 1 or 2 outliers shooting northwad towards Cuba:


November season is extremely front loaded, with most activity occurring during 1st two weeks. After that, the door closes significantly.
Here are all 17 storms occurring AFTER Nov 15th for the Gulf, Caribbean, and West Atlantic regions...
Only 5 Caribbean storms. Most of these (#10) never strengthen above TS status, leaving 7 Hurricanes:

[Ubuntwo]

Less support for this system on the last few GFS runs, ~30% developing.

<15% of members developing on the 0z Euro ensembles.

[Hurricane2021]

Hurricane status is possible if it moves NW towards WCAR?

[Ubuntwo]

Hurricane status is possible if it moves NW towards WCAR?

Technically, but looks unlikely it will lift north out of the southwest Caribbean. The steering isn't there.

[zzh]

[cycloneye]

Another low pressure system has formed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea just north of western Panama. This system is expected
to move westward into Central America by early Tuesday, which will
inhibit tropical cyclone development. However, this disturbance will
still produce locally heavy rainfall across southern Nicaragua,
Costa Rica, and Panama through Tuesday, which could result in
flooding and mudslides. By Wednesday, the system will move into the
far eastern portion of the Eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.