49 months and counting since the last U.S. major hurricane..

[JetMaxx]

In fact, it's the longest period between landfalling U.S. major hurricanes since the 49 month gap between hurricanes Celia (Aug 1970) and Carmen (Sep 1974).

If we escape a landfalling major hurricane in September....it will be the longest period the U.S. coastline has experienced between major hurricanes since a 58 month gap from October 1921 (Tampa Bay) to August 1926 (Louisiana).

Here are the landfalling U.S. major hurricanes (category 3,4,5) since 1846 (per NHC and HRD's HURDAT project).

OCT 1846 (5) SW FL/ FL KEYS/
SEP 1848 (3/4) SW FL (TAMPA BAY)
AUG 1851 (3) FL PANHANDLE
AUG 1852 (3) MS-AL
SEP 1854 (3) GA-SC
SEP 1855 (3) LA-MS
AUG 1856 (4) LA (LAST ISLAND DISASTER)

**48 month gap between major landfalling U.S. hurricanes**

AUG 1860 (3) LA-MS

**109 month gap between landfalling major hurricanes -- over 9 years!**

SEP 1869 (3) NY-RI-MA (ALSO KNOWN AS "SAXBY'S GALE")
AUG 1871 (3) SE FL
OCT 1873 (3) SW FL
SEP 1875 (3) CENTRAL TX
OCT 1877 (3) FL PANHANDLE
AUG 1879 (3) NC
SEP 1879 (3) SE LA
AUG 1880 (4) S TX
SEP 1882 (3) FL PANHANDLE
AUG 1885 (3) SC
AUG 1886 (4) CENTRAL TX
OCT 1886 (3) SW LA
AUG 1888 (4) SE FL (4)/ LA (3)

**60 month gap between majors**

AUG 1893 (3) GA-SC
OCT 1893 (4) SE LA
OCT 1893 (3) SC
OCT 1894 (3) FL PANHANDLE
SEP 1896 (3) NW FL
OCT 1898 (4) GA
AUG 1899 (3) NC
SEP 1900 (4) TX (GALVESTON DISASTER)

**72 month gap between major landfalling hurricane**

SEP 1906 (3) MS-AL-NW FL
OCT 1906 (3) FL KEYS
JUL 1909 (3) N TX
SEP 1909 (3) SE LA
OCT 1909 (3) FL KEYS
OCT 1910 (3) SW FL/ FL KEYS

**58 month gap between landfalling U.S. major**

AUG 1915 (4) N TX
SEP 1915 (4) SE LA-MS
JUL 1916 (3) MS-AL
AUG 1916 (3) S TX
SEP 1917 (3) FL PANHANDLE
AUG 1918 (3) SW LA
SEP 1919 (4) FL KEYS/ S TX
OCT 1921 (3) SW FL (last major to
hit Tampa Bay)

**58 month gap between landfalling U.S. major hurricanes**

AUG 1926 (3) LA
SEP 1926 (4) SE-SW FL/ AL-NW FL ("GREAT MIAMI HURRICANE")
SEP 1928 (4) SE FL ("SAN FELIPE")
SEP 1929 (3) SE FL/ KEYS
AUG 1932 (4) N TX (FREEPORT)
SEP 1933 (3) SE FL
SEP 1933 (3) S TX
SEP 1933 (3) NC
JUN 1934 (3) LA
SEP 1935 (5) FL KEYS/ SW FL ("LABOR DAY HURRICANE")
JUL 1936 (3) FL (PANHANDLE)
SEP 1938 (3) NY-CT-RI-MA ("LONG ISLAND EXPRESS")
SEP 1941 (3) N TX
AUG 1942 (3) CENTRAL TX
SEP 1944 (3) NC-VA/ NY-RI
SEP 1945 (3) SE FL
SEP 1947 (4) S FL (4)/ LA-MS (3)
SEP 1948 (3) FL KEYS/ SW FL
AUG 1949 (3) SE FL
SEP 1950 (3) NW FL ("EASY")
OCT 1950 (3) SE FL ("KING")

**46 month gap between landfalling U.S. majors**

AUG 1954 (3) NY-RI-MA-CT ("CAROL")
SEP 1954 (3) MA ("EDNA")
OCT 1954 (4) SC-NC ("HAZEL")
AUG 1955 (3) NC ("CONNIE")
SEP 1955 (3) NC ("IONE")
JUN 1957 (4) LA-N TX ("AUDREY")
SEP 1959 (3) SC ("GRACIE")
SEP 1960 (4) FL KEYS-SW FL (4)/ NC/NY-CT-RI-MA (3) ("DONNA")
SEP 1961 (4) CENTRAL TX ("CARLA")
OCT 1964 (3) LA ("HILDA")
SEP 1965 (3) FL KEYS/ SE LA ("BETSY")
SEP 1967 (3) S TX ("BEULAH")
AUG 1969 (5) LA-MS ("CAMILLE"
AUG 1970 (3) S TX ("CELIA")

**49 month gap between landfalling U.S. major hurricanes**

SEP 1974 (3) LA ("CARMEN")
SEP 1975 (3) FL PANHANDLE ("ELOISE")

**48 month gap between majors**

SEP 1979 (3) AL-MS ("FREDERIC")
AUG 1980 (3) S TX ("ALLEN")
AUG 1983 (3) N TX ("ALICIA")
SEP 1984 (3) NC ("DIANA")
SEP 1985 (3) AL-MS ("ELENA")
SEP 1985 (3) NC ("GLORIA")

**48 month gap between landfalling majors**

SEP 1989 (4) SC ("HUGO")
AUG 1992 (5) SE FL (5)/ LA (3) ("ANDREW")
AUG 1993 (3) NC ("EMILY")
OCT 1995 (3) FL PANHANDLE ("OPAL")
SEP 1996 (3) NC ("FRAN")
AUG 1999 (3) S TX ("BRET")

NO major landfalling U.S. hurricane since Bret in August 1999....49 months and counting....

[Stormsfury]

Excellent research, Perry ...

[ameriwx2003]

Perry outstanding research!!!!!!!!!. I always learn a greta deal from your messages:):)

[Andrew92]

Great reseach Perry! Hopefully the wait will continue forever!

Unfortunately, it probably won't. Even if not this year, I'm not sure what it is, but I get the chills thinking about next year, and several names on the list next year seem, to me, like names for big storms. With that, I'm just trying to enjoy this year while it still is. Even so, one name this year stands out like a sore thumb to me for a late-breeder....maybe and hopefully I'm wrong, but I'll guess Mindy.

Oops, went off-topic. I also always love reading your material Perry! You always good, informative things to say.

-Andrew92

[AussieMark]

Bret was a close call if Bret made landfall further south what damage estimates would have resulted particulary if it hit Brownsville which it looked like for a while and at that latitude it was a Category 4 hurricane. (i am talking hyperthetical)

[rainstorm]

dr gray has commented on how shocked he is that we are in a period of incresed activity and yet no major canes are threatening the us

[JetMaxx]

It's almost incredible the hyper-active hurricane seasons we've witnessed since 1995...yet the only U.S. landfalling major hurricanes in that period have been Opal, Fran, and Bret -- and neither of them stronger than 115-120 mph (at landfall).

We were so extremely fortunate with monsters such as Opal, Georges, Floyd, Mitch, and Lili....and wonder just how much longer we'll continue to be that lucky.

[Derek Ortt]

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archiv ... elim05.gif


Gloria did not affect the USA as a major hurricane. It had weakened to a cat 2. Operationally, bad data analysis was used to classify it as a major hurricane at us landfall

[Rainband]

Great research Perry..Awesome JOB!!!!

[southerngale]

Great job Perry!

[JetMaxx]

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1985/gloria/prelim05.gif


Gloria did not affect the USA as a major hurricane. It had weakened to a cat 2. Operationally, bad data analysis was used to classify it as a major hurricane at us landfall

There are a lot of past hurricanes that need a re-evaluation Derek. Floyd (1999) was rated as cat-2...as was 1998's Bonnie in the same area -- yet both hurricane Connie (962 mb) and Ione (960 mb) produced similar winds, central pressure, and tides along the North Carolina coast and were rated cat-3.

In September 1958, hurricane Helene came within 20-25 miles of Cape Fear. A severe cat-4 hurricane (936 mb), winds gusted to 135 mph in downtown Wilmington and 150-160 on Cape Fear....yet Helene isn't even rated as a U.S. major hit-- even though major damage and over a dozen deaths were attributed to this monster hurricane (Cape Fear was in the northwest eyewall just as Cape Hatteras was in Emily in 1993 -- yet Emily is considered a direct hit and Helene isn't??).

I agree 100% -- Gloria was NOT a major hurricane at either North Carolina or New York landfall...I've known it for almost 18 years. I only included it in my list BECAUSE every NHC publication I read still list it as a cat-3 direct hit at Hatteras and Long Island. In reality, the last major hurricane for Long Island, NY was Donna in 1960.

Here's another tidbit to think about. The last major hurricane to strike Tampa Bay (1921) was probably NOT a major hurricane at landfall....based on observed winds and tides in that area. A 10' storm surge is more indicative of a cat-2 hurricane in the Tampa Bay area.

On the other hand, it's very likely winds reached cat-3 status on the Pinellas county beaches during passage of the 1935 Labor Day hurricane. Winds were sustained at 84 mph in downtown Tampa....20-25 miles from the open GOM -- and I fully believe this former cat-5 hurricane was still a powerful (cat-3) hurricane at landfall west of Cedar Key -- tides at that location were the highest observed since the severe 1896 hurricane (now believed to have been a 955-960 mb cat-3)....even though the small compact 1935 hurricane missed Cedar Key by 30-40 miles.

[Aquawind]

It's almost incredible the hyper-active hurricane seasons we've witnessed since 1995...yet the only U.S. landfalling major hurricanes in that period have been Opal, Fran, and Bret -- and neither of them stronger than 115-120 mph (at landfall).

We were so extremely fortunate with monsters such as Opal, Georges, Floyd, Mitch, and Lili....and wonder just how much longer we'll continue to be that lucky.

You got that right..it could be alot longer but with the activity since 1995... AMAZING..