galaxy401 wrote:Should become an invest shortly.
2010 had that very active June with 2 majors and then crickets after that...
Yes I remember well hurricane Celia in 2010, the NHC having a tough time forecasting it with the models not getting to grips with the intensity at all. In a way it was fortunate it was a fish storm:
"HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
85 kts
CELIA HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING TO 5 KT OR LESS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE ALL OF THE INTENSITY SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...NONE OF THE MODELS MAKE CELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE.
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
100 kts
NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY STRENGTHENING OF CELIA...AND THIS APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS THAT CELIA IS OVER AT THE MOMENT.
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
115 kts
THE INTENSITY MODELS...WHICH HAVE NOT PREDICTED THE INTENSIFICATION OF CELIA WELL...CONTINUE TO SHOW VIRTUALLY NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
140 kts
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CELIA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS."