Will El Niño affect the peak of the 2022 ATL season?

[Shell Mound]

Moderators, please turn this thread into a poll with the following:

Header – “Will El Niño develop in time to affect the peak of the 2022 ATL season?”
Options – Yes, No

I am voting no.

[cycloneye]

Made a poll that will be open until January 3 at 1:36 PM EDT.

[weeniepatrol]

yes. watch it be above-average regardless

[Teban54]

While it's definitely too early to tell, IMO a 2012- or 2018-esque season, where an El Nino fails to develop or only does so too late to impact the season, is more likely than a season like 2014 where a late-developing El Nino still creates atmospheric conditions that shut down the season.

[Category5Kaiju]

yes. watch it be above-average regardless

Lol, watch 2022 pull a 2004 or 1969 Modoki El Nino style trick and have the Atlantic undergo hyperdrive

[tolakram]

I'm surprised so many are saying no. There is no skill this far out so in reality we don't know. I voted YES, just wanted to go on record to see how this turns out. In reality I have NO clue.

[FireRat]

Gonna say No.
While making these kinds of predictions are not technically possible this far out, I'd say the odds favor a no. We would have to see a massive flip from the La Niña that we're in now in short order for there to be consequences for the 2022 peak season imo.

[ncforecaster89]

I suspect the highest probability will feature a warm Neutral ENSO phase…which will likely provide a mitigating effect on seasonal ACE.

Consequently, I voted “yes” in the poll as a prospective warm phase (albeit not an El Nino) would likely precede an El Niño that’ll transpire after the ASO tri-monthly.

In order of highest probabilities:

Warm Neutral …… 35%
El Niño………………. 25%
Cool Neutral…….. 20%
La Niña…………….. 10%

[Category5Kaiju]

I suspect the highest probability will feature a warm Neutral ENSO phase…which will likely provide a mitigating effect on seasonal ACE.

Consequently, I voted “yes” in the poll as a prospective warm phase (albeit not an El Nino) would likely precede an El Niño that’ll transpire after the ASO tri-monthly.

In order of highest probabilities:

Warm Neutral …… 35%
El Niño………………. 25%
Cool Neutral…….. 20%
La Niña…………….. 10%

Interestingly though, while warm neutral does not tend to favor as active of seasons as La Nina/cool neutral would, there are quite a few notable warm neutral years that featured at least one extremely powerful and destructive Atlantic hurricane. It's also important to note that historically since at least 1950, years that are warm neutral tend to be relatively uncommon compared to years that are La Nina, cool neutral, or El Nino (so the sample size is not great but the best we have). Consider the warm neutral years 1960, 1990, 1993, 2003, 2012, and 2019 for example. With the exception of 1990 and 1993, 1960 had Donna, 2003 had Isabel, 2012 had Sandy, and 2019 had Dorian. It remains to be seen what ENSO state 2022 will be, but assuming an El Nino fails to develop, given the relative infrequent occurrence of years that stay in warm neutral territory, I'm personally leaning more toward dead or cool neutral as a likelier outcome.

[aspen]

I said yes, partially because the Atlantic is way overdue, but also because a cool ENSO is looking less and less likely for next year. I don’t think a total shutdown of the Atlantic is likely in 2022, though; maybe a closer-to-average season of 12-15 NS and 90-120 ACE could result from the end of the -ENSO and a transition to neutral or warm-neutral.

[Kingarabian]

Probably not.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like those who voted "no" are going to be correct. Quite unfortunate for Atlantic dwellers.

[ncforecaster89]

Still see no reason to amend my expectation of warm Neutral conditions for the ASO tri-monthly. I put very little faith in computer model data at this range. If I’m incorrect, I suspect it will be low-end cool Neutral transitioning to warm
Neutral by winter.

[Kingarabian]

Still see no reason to amend my expectation of warm Neutral conditions for the ASO tri-monthly. I put very little faith in computer model data at this range. If I’m incorrect, I suspect it will be low-end cool Neutral transitioning to warm
Neutral by winter.

It's not even computer models. It's observed sustained trade bursts and upwelling going on over the equatorial Pacific.

[Category5Kaiju]

Still see no reason to amend my expectation of warm Neutral conditions for the ASO tri-monthly. I put very little faith in computer model data at this range. If I’m incorrect, I suspect it will be low-end cool Neutral transitioning to warm
Neutral by winter.

It's honestly going to take a colossal bust with the vast majority of models for even a warm neutral to pan out by then. Many of them are vehemently clustering in the -ENSO territory, so this consistency has to indicate at least something, and that something, imho, does not look too bright for +ENSO

[ncforecaster89]

Still see no reason to amend my expectation of warm Neutral conditions for the ASO tri-monthly. I put very little faith in computer model data at this range. If I’m incorrect, I suspect it will be low-end cool Neutral transitioning to warm
Neutral by winter.

It's honestly going to take a colossal bust with the vast majority of models for even a warm neutral to pan out by then. Many of them are vehemently clustering in the -ENSO territory, so this consistency has to indicate at least something, and that something, imho, does not look too bright for +ENSO

I’ll clarify my previous comment by simply stating that it’s simply too early to make any definitive predictions on what ENSO state will ultimately manifest itself by the ASO time interval. I don’t anticipate EL Nino, but still personally expect a warm Neutral phase by the peak months of this upcoming hurricane season.

There have been numerous examples of a similar intensity La Niña switching to either a warm Neutral or El Niño at this particular range.
2006, 2009, 2012, and 2018 being the most recent examples.

[SFLcane]

A big fat NO on that. If the season is hampered it won’t be due to ENSO.

[AlphaToOmega]

Still see no reason to amend my expectation of warm Neutral conditions for the ASO tri-monthly. I put very little faith in computer model data at this range. If I’m incorrect, I suspect it will be low-end cool Neutral transitioning to warm
Neutral by winter.

It's honestly going to take a colossal bust with the vast majority of models for even a warm neutral to pan out by then. Many of them are vehemently clustering in the -ENSO territory, so this consistency has to indicate at least something, and that something, imho, does not look too bright for +ENSO

I’ll clarify my previous comment by simply stating that it’s simply too early to make any definitive predictions on what ENSO state will ultimately manifest itself by the ASO time interval. I don’t anticipate EL Nino, but still personally expect a warm Neutral phase by the peak months of this upcoming hurricane season.

There have been numerous examples of a similar intensity La Niña switching to either a warm Neutral or El Niño at this particular range.
2006, 2009, 2012, and 2018 being the most recent examples.

I would say that La Nina is favored as of now, but we cannot say anything for certain. While the -SOI that is expected to continue will make +ENSO more difficult, we could see a reversal in April (2010 and 2016 went from a strong -SOI to a strong +SOI in the spring).

[Kingarabian]

Guys there will be no El Nino for 2022.

Look at what's happening in the ENSO thread.

[Category5Kaiju]

Guys there will be no El Nino for 2022.

Look at what's happening in the ENSO thread.

You know, I actually think the chance that a mega asteroid hits Earth tomorrow and wipes humans all out is higher than an El Nino for 2022