2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Well the Euro isn't turning the waves into landfalling GOM major hurricanes. Its playing it safe so far.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Kingarabian wrote:Well the Euro isn't turning the waves into landfalling GOM major hurricanes. Its playing it safe so far.
Well with the Euro's recent history it wouldnt be able to do it even if it had a hurricane staring it in the face (cough Laura cough)
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
0Z EURO & EPS pretty much the same, moving forward in time now
Last edited by skyline385 on Sun Jun 19, 2022 6:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Re: RE: Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
CMC has it too but weakens through the MDR
Last edited by skyline385 on Sun Jun 19, 2022 7:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
EURO was more north at 00z than it was at 12z.
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Re: RE: Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
cycloneye wrote:EURO was more north at 00z than it was at 12z.
EPS does have a strong ridge building up just as the operational EURO ends so very likely imo it stays south
Last edited by skyline385 on Sun Jun 19, 2022 7:46 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Trend by the Euro ensembles is for increased support for development over the MDR next week.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
It briefly shows up on the GFS (although very weak), seems like the GFS' CAG bias is killing it.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
skyline385 wrote:It briefly shows up on the GFS (although very weak), seems like the GFS' CAG bias is killing it.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220619/a2faf5455bcbcdd72a118955934d7659.gif
Andy Hazelton was pointing that out too, how the GFS seems to not like that system as it continues to develop spurious WCAR systems, causing the MDR system to die from outflow shear
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Category5Kaiju wrote:skyline385 wrote:It briefly shows up on the GFS (although very weak), seems like the GFS' CAG bias is killing it.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220619/a2faf5455bcbcdd72a118955934d7659.gif
Andy Hazelton was pointing that out too, how the GFS seems to not like that system as it continues to develop spurious WCAR systems, causing the MDR system to die from outflow shear
Not sure if it's that, the wave just... dies once it comes off Africa for some reason despite decent conditions
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
NotSparta wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:skyline385 wrote:It briefly shows up on the GFS (although very weak), seems like the GFS' CAG bias is killing it.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220619/a2faf5455bcbcdd72a118955934d7659.gif
Andy Hazelton was pointing that out too, how the GFS seems to not like that system as it continues to develop spurious WCAR systems, causing the MDR system to die from outflow shear
Not sure if it's that, the wave just... dies once it comes off Africa for some reason despite decent conditions
Is this wave one that has just emerged off of Africa, or will it emerge in a couple of days? I thought someone said it was probably the one currently just off of the African coast.
This system appears on the most recent CFS run too, but starts recurving just before hitting the Lesser Antilles and instead hits Bermuda and Nova Scotia. Other systems on this CFS run include:
—Multiple MDR storms in the second half of August
—Something forming over the Bahamas/off of the SEUS coast in late August
—Possibly a bit of a break in early September before more MDR activity, with a big MDR storm in mid-September
Last edited by aspen on Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
CMC likes this upcoming system....
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
First the GFS was the only model to show development of the CAG systems, now it’s the only model to not show development of the MDR system (except for one run the other day). Not a particularly strong start this season.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
aspen wrote:First the GFS was the only model to show development of the CAG systems, now it’s the only model to not show development of the MDR system (except for one run the other day). Not a particularly strong start this season.
Yea the last CAG in particular which was within 120 hours is going to affect its verification too.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
12Z EURO running weaker, no well defined vorticity at 180h
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1538594494643314688
Funny he says that because the 120 EURO does seem to be moving towards the trailing wave
EDIT: weak sloppy run, trailing wave also starts to weaken
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Pretty bullish 12Z EPS though, especially when you compare against 0Z run
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