2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

If it's real I'm sure we'll figure it out soon.

[Blown Away]

0Z GEFS is still rather active near FL/Gulf very late month. fwiw.
0Z Euro: no TC entire run anywhere.

For the last few GEFS runs, a significant number of members appear to originate NE of Venezuela (circled in red).
Are these related to the AEW wave (black), or are they a separate disturbance?
https://i.ibb.co/5nJHsLR/ce.jpg

You have a very good eye. This thing off S America is separate from the AEW now just off Africa and is actually well west of it when it shows up starting in just 72 hours. Not first having seen what you wrote here, I had just posted at another board the following:

"For FL/Gulf coast, this 6Z GEFS is back to being close to the most active GEFS run yet, which was previously the 6Z GEFS from yesterday.

But there's something a bit different about this run. Whereas the other active late month runs near FL were dominated by the AEW currently just off Africa and this newest one also has some activity from that AEW, this one is more dominated by something that seems to come off of S America (near Suriname) in only 72 hours (8/21), which is well in front of the wave now just off Africa. So, I wonder whether or not these TCs that originate off S America are bogus since they hadn't shown up before. Any opinions?"

I see that the poster Aspen seems to think this stuff originating off S America is bogus.

Agree, but the full 06z run a few of the Africa AEW ensembles catch the S America AEW ensembles and become MH's near SFL?

[LarryWx]

For the last few GEFS runs, a significant number of members appear to originate NE of Venezuela (circled in red).
Are these related to the AEW wave (black), or are they a separate disturbance?
https://i.ibb.co/5nJHsLR/ce.jpg

You have a very good eye. This thing off S America is separate from the AEW now just off Africa and is actually well west of it when it shows up starting in just 72 hours. Not first having seen what you wrote here, I had just posted at another board the following:

"For FL/Gulf coast, this 6Z GEFS is back to being close to the most active GEFS run yet, which was previously the 6Z GEFS from yesterday.

But there's something a bit different about this run. Whereas the other active late month runs near FL were dominated by the AEW currently just off Africa and this newest one also has some activity from that AEW, this one is more dominated by something that seems to come off of S America (near Suriname) in only 72 hours (8/21), which is well in front of the wave now just off Africa. So, I wonder whether or not these TCs that originate off S America are bogus since they hadn't shown up before. Any opinions?"

I see that the poster Aspen seems to think this stuff originating off S America is bogus.

https://i.imgur.com/Uhkg5nf.jpg

Agree, but the full 06z run a few of the Africa AEW ensembles catch the S America AEW ensembles and become MH's near SFL?

Correct. Dominated by S American disturbance but also still a couple from AEW just off Africa.

[SFLcane]

For the last few GEFS runs, a significant number of members appear to originate NE of Venezuela (circled in red).
Are these related to the AEW wave (black), or are they a separate disturbance?
https://i.ibb.co/5nJHsLR/ce.jpg

You have a very good eye. This thing off S America is separate from the AEW now just off Africa and is actually well west of it when it shows up starting in just 72 hours. Not first having seen what you wrote here, I had just posted at another board the following:

"For FL/Gulf coast, this 6Z GEFS is back to being close to the most active GEFS run yet, which was previously the 6Z GEFS from yesterday.

But there's something a bit different about this run. Whereas the other active late month runs near FL were dominated by the AEW currently just off Africa and this newest one also has some activity from that AEW, this one is more dominated by something that seems to come off of S America (near Suriname) in only 72 hours (8/21), which is well in front of the wave now just off Africa. So, I wonder whether or not these TCs that originate off S America are bogus since they hadn't shown up before. Any opinions?"

I see that the poster Aspen seems to think this stuff originating off S America is bogus.

https://i.imgur.com/Uhkg5nf.jpg

Agree, but the full 06z run a few of the Africa AEW ensembles catch the S America AEW ensembles and become MH's near SFL?

Not Africa - somewhere along the ITCZ. If the GFS/Euro picks up on it it'll be clearer.

[Teban54]

Really? Thats what 5 hurricanes into SFL.. Operational models are dead but ensembles are crazy.

https://i.postimg.cc/xTKT8MJD/gefs.jpg

What I'm getting from the ensemble runs is that any disturbance that survives to the north of Greater Antilles has the potential to go haywire. Question is whether a system will take advantage of it.

[LarryWx]

You have a very good eye. This thing off S America is separate from the AEW now just off Africa and is actually well west of it when it shows up starting in just 72 hours. Not first having seen what you wrote here, I had just posted at another board the following:

"For FL/Gulf coast, this 6Z GEFS is back to being close to the most active GEFS run yet, which was previously the 6Z GEFS from yesterday.

But there's something a bit different about this run. Whereas the other active late month runs near FL were dominated by the AEW currently just off Africa and this newest one also has some activity from that AEW, this one is more dominated by something that seems to come off of S America (near Suriname) in only 72 hours (8/21), which is well in front of the wave now just off Africa. So, I wonder whether or not these TCs that originate off S America are bogus since they hadn't shown up before. Any opinions?"

I see that the poster Aspen seems to think this stuff originating off S America is bogus.

https://i.imgur.com/Uhkg5nf.jpg

Agree, but the full 06z run a few of the Africa AEW ensembles catch the S America AEW ensembles and become MH's near SFL?

Not Africa - somewhere along the ITCZ. If the GFS/Euro picks up on it it'll be clearer.

The ones that hit/threaten FL/Gulf coast are mainly from the S American ITCZ, but a couple on the 6Z GEFS from the AEW now just off Africa almost catch up with the ones from S America and also threaten FL.

[Spacecoast]

A few (~7%) weak 0Z EPS members also show the S. American activity....


I often use Alan Brammer's UAlbany site to filter out the 'noise', apparently eliminating certain (spurious?) members.
He describes the (rather complex) method here:
https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/genesis/readme.php

OZ EPS genesis shows increasing support from yesterday, but still less than 50%. (thin black is ensemble mean), but filters out all the SA stuff.

[aspen]

12z ICON has a MDR storm mid to late next week.

[skyline385]

12z ICON has a MDR storm mid to late next week.

Uhm where? All i see is a 1005mb wave about to get killed off by dry air


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[cycloneye]

12z GFS has dead MDR thru 10 days, Dry air dominates.

[LarryWx]

0Z GEFS is still rather active near FL/Gulf very late month. fwiw.
0Z Euro: no TC entire run anywhere.

For the last few GEFS runs, a significant number of members appear to originate NE of Venezuela (circled in red).
Are these related to the AEW wave (black), or are they a separate disturbance?
https://i.ibb.co/5nJHsLR/ce.jpg

12Z GEFS is less active off of S America. That in combo with finding no analogs back to 1930 tell me the 6Z GEFS was bogus with those TCs that originated off of S America.

[BobHarlem]

The 12Z Gfs has echos of the gulf system next week, but nothing strong. It's been interesting how the Gulf has been "almost there", with last week and 98L, to what's over the Yucatan Peninsula right now (which the models are struggling with, is there some sort of data hole here?), and the system next week on the GFS. If we get something before the end of the month it'll probably be in the Gulf.

[lsuhurricane]

In reality, the 12z GFS Ensembles are a notable uptick for the deep Caribbean system. Trend GIF

[LarryWx]

In reality, the 12z GFS Ensembles are a notable uptick for the deep Caribbean system. Trend GIF

https://i.ibb.co/6PBjG7z/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh144-trend-1.gif

So, this run of the GEFS is harping on another system even further west (coming off NW S America) instead of the likely bogus one off of NE S America that the prior run was harping on and the AEW now just off of Africa that the 0Z and earlier runs were harping on. The GEFS runs don't give me a lot of confidence.

[SFLcane]

In reality, the 12z GFS Ensembles are a notable uptick for the deep Caribbean system. Trend GIF

https://i.ibb.co/6PBjG7z/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh144-trend-1.gif

Hmm not sure looks a lot weaker overall to me.

[skyline385]

12Z GEFS still had some members developing despite the lack of activity on 12Z GFS. 18Z solutions are coming in now lets what it brings, If 18Z GFS also shows a lack of activity then expect the ensembles to start back-tracking soon. On the other hand, if 18Z GFS brings the systems back then 12Z could probably be called an anomalous run for now

Called it, ensembles are now back tracking as operational models have failed to form something coherent for the last few runs.


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[Hurricaneman]

Here’s my thoughts on the models showing almost nothing, the wave near the CV islands needs to be watched as it could be the classic show little until there’s something, if the CV wave develops between 50 and 60w it could be a problem but if not we will have to wait a little longer

Also the models seem to have trouble the last few years showing development until a few days from genesis so we could very well have a few systems to track by next week even though not much is being shown

[lsuhurricane]

The 12z Euro also has vorticity in the deep Caribbean during the same timeframe as the GFS and CMC. We shall see

[SFLcane]

Lot's of waves on the euro weren't for the dry air we'd have an outbreak.

[cycloneye]