2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Steve]

06 GFS has a hit on Maine /+/- 300 hours with a tropical system forming in the subtropics and getting lassoed by a low pressure system that brings it in. Not buying it now but if it was September you could see that.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1906&fh=54

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1560601372575563782

[skyline385]

The Euro, CMC, and ICON all try to develop a wave that emerges off of Africa around August 24th. This is one of the two waves the GFS developed into MDR storms back when it was actually showing any Atlantic development.

All of them also have the wave at similar locations, its been a while since we have seen that happen on multiple models.

[SconnieCane]

The Euro, CMC, and ICON all try to develop a wave that emerges off of Africa around August 24th. This is one of the two waves the GFS developed into MDR storms back when it was actually showing any Atlantic development.

All of them also have the wave at similar locations, its been a while since we have seen that happen on multiple models.

Of course this would happen as soon as the GFS/GEFS effectively drops development with it.

[Kingarabian]

Even though the GFS bas dropped the idea of another GOM of system in the next 10 days, the 00z CMC still has it and it's very pronounced on the model.

[SFLcane]

Models waking up? Icon showing development luckly with a big trough pinching off in front of it which turns it nw pretty quickly.

[BobHarlem]

Hmm 12z GFS sees something developing Monday near the Azores now (the one talked about in the "Tropical Wave off the African coast" thread)... what is up with models lately?

[AutoPenalti]

GFS 12z has something interesting at day 5...

[Blown Away]

GFS 12z has something interesting at day 5...

Same TW/low on the 8.17.22 GFS runs that generated all those ensemble MH hits in the Bahamas, Florida, NGOM...

[Kingarabian]

GFS back to showing the medium range GOM system.

[LarryWx]

Meanwhile, the 12Z UKMET is the first with a TC on it in many days and the first on any UKMET run in the MDR since even further back/probably weeks. This is NOT the same AEW just discussed in the thread for the AEW already offshore as regards the GFS (UK has yet to touch that one on any run) but rather is a later one not coming off Africa for a few more days:



NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.2N 18.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.08.2022 120 15.2N 18.0W 1004 32
0000UTC 25.08.2022 132 16.4N 20.1W 1007 26
1200UTC 25.08.2022 144 16.6N 23.0W 1006 27

[lsuhurricane]

Yep, back to both CMC and GFS indicating a GOM threat late next week.

Both also showing the next wave developing, albeit at differing speeds.

[aspen]

The 12z CMC is even stronger with the system spawned from the 8/24 wave. 12z ICON still develops it.

The favored wave on the GFS remains weak before starting to develop near the Caribbean on the 12z run. I can pick out that same wave on the CMC, but it never develops and runs over the Shredder.

[galaxy401]

Honestly at this point, I'm discarding any model runs that show absolutely nothing in the next two weeks.

[caneseddy]

The fact that now UKMET is picking on activity is probably a good indicator that the switch is about to turn on.

Meanwhile, the 12Z UKMET is the first with a TC on it in many days and the first on any UKMET run in the MDR since even further back/probably weeks. This is NOT the same AEW just discussed in the thread for the AEW already offshore as regards the GFS (UK has yet to touch that one on any run) but rather is a later one not coming off Africa for a few more days:



NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.2N 18.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.08.2022 120 15.2N 18.0W 1004 32
0000UTC 25.08.2022 132 16.4N 20.1W 1007 26
1200UTC 25.08.2022 144 16.6N 23.0W 1006 27

[ronjon]

12z GFS now has two systems, a weak tropical storm in the NE GOM and a monster MDR 953 mb hurricane in the SE Bahamas in the super long range.

[SFLcane]

that low that weakens the ridge is bogus on the gfs.

[Category5Kaiju]

Figured to share this since the models seem to be waking up now (especially the ones like UKMet and CFS) right around the August 20 date and to ease any concerns about 2013 2.0

[NDG]

I keep thinking that the CMCs runs are a good compromise between the Euro and GFS on yet another possible GOM development for late next week.

[aspen]

12z Euro develops the northern portion of a wave in a few days like the GFS, with the August 24/25th wave coming in strong by 144hrs.