2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Re: RE: Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
If we had a signal like that in august, we would have 200 posts about it today, at least.gatorcane wrote:The GEFS says Happy October!
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Hopefully SFLcane will be breaking out his ghost images in a week
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
toad strangler wrote:Hopefully SFLcane will be breaking out his ghost images in a week
Hmmm maybe but it’s potentially not a ghost I think it’s picking up on one of these waves currently in the central Atlantic. The environment looks very ripe in the Caribbean if anything decides to take advantage. The focus is now close to home so we’ll see.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Looks like another GFS ghost, can see the wave in the MDR not make it to the Caribbean followed by some spurious vorticity spin up near CA.
Last edited by skyline385 on Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
skyline385 wrote:Looks like another GFS ghost, can see the wave in the not make it to the Caribbean followed by some spurious vorticity spin up near CA.
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_z850_vort_watl_fh120-300.gif
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1576178416478396417
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Wow, that run really has no mercy on Florida
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SFLcane wrote:EPS dropped it, interestingly.
Spooky
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
skyline385 wrote:This is a good time to post this
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1568279982136299520?s=20&t=Xl5lWM2Uuf4h_WV_NfmemQ
Lol we get it Could be a ghost but it’s certainly time to watch the Caribbean as the environment is going to be very favorable if anything makes it in there. Also this area is favored by Phil k and is likely to see above above average activity sometime this month. The genesis seed is potentially the tropical wave near 40 west. We shall see
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SFLcane wrote:skyline385 wrote:This is a good time to post this
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1568279982136299520?s=20&t=Xl5lWM2Uuf4h_WV_NfmemQ
Lol we get it Could be a ghost but it’s certainly time to watch the Caribbean as the environment is going to be very favorable if anything makes it in there. Also this area is favored by Phil k and is likely to see above above average activity sometime this month. The genesis seed is potentially the tropical wave near 40 west. We shall see
You don't have to tell me that, been saying for months that the Caribbean needs to be watched at this season
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 5#p3001915
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 8#p2988658
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 9#p2985329 (called out Ian a month ago )
However, the current spin up still looks like a ghost from the vorticity plot I posted above.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Wave hitting Virgin Islands Oct 10 looks interesting
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
GCANE wrote:Wave hitting Virgin Islands Oct 10 looks interesting
Why is interesting?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Hmmmm I wonder if this will be enough to trigger a lemon this evening or tonight? GFS is very aggressive with it, forms a brief TD in 48 hours on the 00z run. Degenerates into a tropical wave again but then reforms near the leeward islands...strange run. Been watching this wave for a couple days and will continue to watch it especially given its getting convectively active now.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
What the GFS has been doing through the last few days of runs is splitting the wave in two sending one piece north of PR while the southern half forms in the western Caribbean on a later date, my thinking is something forms in between
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
My thoughts on the 0zGFS is that the northern low is a phantom while the western Caribbean is the real deal since the GFS ensembles and Euro and it’s ensembles agree with the western Caribbean system
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