How strong will the ‘big one’ of the 2022 NATL season be?

[Blinhart]

sub 900 mb, 195 maybe 200 mph

[Kat5]

165-170 mph. I’ll go extra and say western Caribbean in September.

[LemieT]

I'm thinking we get a Sam/Igor type storm again this season. 155 mph max, open Atlantic. I do think we might see some majors hit land otherwise but the big boy will be OTS.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just imagine if the 175+ mph group actually wins, but that 175+ mph hurricane happens in late September or October. Or better yet, November.

This is actually a very thought-provoking question at this point. With all the talk of the underperforming season and bust season, let's face it: there's still hardly any empirical way we can know for sure that this season won't pull a 1910, 1929, or 2016. Sometimes quiet seasons can really hold late-season surprises (especially if you leave untapped waters untapped), and we all know that it only takes one, and all it takes is a storm to form at the right time and the right place and for some pretty bad luck to happen. Hurricane seasons are very stochastic processes, and it's honestly quite fascinating to believe that we cannot really know for sure that every landmass will escape unscathed until we're actually near November 30.

In other words, my point is, just because there's a lot of inactivity doesn't mean we can never get a major storm or two at least that wreak havoc. Being cautious that general inactivity does not equate to inability to produce a major, impactful hurricane is the way to go

[Hurricane2022]

Hermine and\or Ian will be strong C5 hurricanes in late September/early October

Both will have winds above 150 kt

[SteveM]

Just imagine if the 175+ mph group actually wins, but that 175+ mph hurricane happens in late September or October. Or better yet, November.

This is actually a very thought-provoking question at this point. With all the talk of the underperforming season and bust season, let's face it: there's still hardly any empirical way we can know for sure that this season won't pull a 1910, 1929, or 2016. Sometimes quiet seasons can really hold late-season surprises (especially if you leave untapped waters untapped), and we all know that it only takes one, and all it takes is a storm to form at the right time and the right place and for some pretty bad luck to happen. Hurricane seasons are very stochastic processes, and it's honestly quite fascinating to believe that we cannot really know for sure that every landmass will escape unscathed until we're actually near November 30.

In other words, my point is, just because there's a lot of inactivity doesn't mean we can never get a major storm or two at least that wreak havoc. Being cautious that general inactivity does not equate to inability to produce a major, impactful hurricane is the way to go

Sure, but the most likely outcome is that we end up with a below average season with fewer than usual majors. If you want to be empirical, look at what we've seen so far, the current conditions, and the forecast for upcoming conditions.

[LarryWx]

I'm educatedly guessing based on ENSO analogs that the strongest landfall will be on the Gulf coast of FL, most likely within the late Sep through mid OCT period.

[Iceresistance]

Could not vote since the poll closed in June, but I'm afraid to say that the 'big one' is going to be an absolute beast because the Western Caribbean and GoM is mostly untapped, any organized system that manages to get there under favorable conditions will literally explode in intensity. The likely time frame for that to occur appears to be in Late September and into October.

Name of the system? It's anyone's guess right now.

[Category5Kaiju]

So given my pretty deep tropical boredom now , I've decided to list out some of my personal favorite potential replacement names for the "big one" this year, whatever name that storm receives.

Fiona --> Flavia
Gaston --> Gregory
Hermine --> Hailey
Ian --> Irving
Julia --> Jennifer
Karl --> Kurt

[ConvergenceZone]

lol what big one? That is if there even is one..........

[WiscoWx02]

lol what big one? That is if there even is one..........

That’s where I’m basically at right now

[Chris90]

So given my pretty deep tropical boredom now , I've decided to list out some of my personal favorite potential replacement names for the "big one" this year, whatever name that storm receives.

Fiona --> Flavia
Gaston --> Gregory
Hermine --> Hailey
Ian --> Irving
Julia --> Jennifer
Karl --> Kurt

A shot at rapid intensification with Flavia Flav. It would be ironic if there was a storm named Flavia and the models spent days forecasting a New York landfall, just for the storm to change directions at the last minute and make landfall somewhere else.



This list seems to have a Caribbean M curse and it is a La Nina year, even if the ATL isn't acting like it, so I'll say Martin hits 150kt+ in the Caribbean in October. I don't remember what I voted for back when the poll was active in June, but with the way this season's going, I'm probably throwing caution to the wind being this bullish.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

105 knots, late-September.

[skyline385]

MDR is hopeless for this season, it will probably be a Caribbean system with all that untapped OHC. I think there is a good chance at a strong Cat 5 for end of month or October.

[Iceresistance]

MDR is hopeless for this season, it will probably be a Caribbean system with all that untapped OHC. I think there is a good chance at a strong Cat 5 for end of month or October.

I've been thinking of the same thing too.

[CyclonicFury]

As dead as it may look right now, I still wouldn't rule out the possibility of something strong in the MDR in late September. That has been when we have seen the strongest MDR hurricanes in recent years. 2019 had a rather luckluster MDR until mid-September and then had Lorenzo become a strong Category 4 in the deep tropics.

[Category5Kaiju]

MDR is hopeless for this season, it will probably be a Caribbean system with all that untapped OHC. I think there is a good chance at a strong Cat 5 for end of month or October.

Honestly, I really wouldn't be surprised if that happens. If something is able to take advantage of the W. Atlantic during a climatologically favorable part of the season and utilize all of that virtually untapped waters...then forget about below-average season or low ACE. You're likely going to get a storm that will be remembered and define 2022.

[Iceresistance]

Bumping this because my forecast area for the Atlantic's 'big one' may verify!

[kevin]

I'll go extremely specific even though I have no idea at all.

Hurricane Owen
*Sometime in the Sept 21 - Sept 31 timeframe
*Caribbean cruiser, first landfall as a cat 1 on Saint Lucia
*Afterwards it struggles a bit, but bombs out into a MH two days later
*Peaks as a cat 5 before an EWRC brings it down to a cat 4, which is the strength at which it makes landfall in Yucatan (closest analog is probably hurricane Janet but a bit weaker at landfall)
*Bonus = when Owen reaches its peak the recon mission into the storm is postponed, resulting in Eta/Sam flashbacks on the forum. The mission eventually does reach Owen and finds the peak intensity listed below. However, the postponement will result in an speculative discussion whether Owen might've been a sub-900mb hurricane at some point before.
*Cat 5 / 155 kt / 904 mbar

Okay so the Owen and Saint Lucia part will not verify, but the rest, who knows.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like my very original guess of getting Paula as the "big one" this year seems quite slim, unless something truly extraordinary happens and we get a November beast.

With that being said, unless something else happens afterwards, it's looking like future 98L has the potential to really be the big one for this season.