Disturbed weather in East Atlantic

[cycloneye]

The majority of models have been showing this area but some try to develop only weak and others not. It has been an active January so far in Atlantic and EPAC with areas to watch.

[AlphaToOmega]

[AlphaToOmega]

Just two days away

[cycloneye]

Models are no longer enthusiastic.

[AlphaToOmega]

One day away


The models have been surprisingly enthusiastic about development in the Western Hemisphere recently.

[AlphaToOmega]

All three of the major models (GFS, ECMWF, and ICON) continue to show development despite the fact that the NHC sees no development in this area.

[cycloneye]

A robust surface trough extends from 26N29W to 11N41W.
To the E of the trough, a large area of fresh to strong mainly E
winds dominate. These winds have generated swell that is causing
seas of 7 to 9 ft to reach as far W as around 40W. In addition, a
broad area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 17N to
26N between 22W and 34W. This trough and associated active weather
is expected to move W to NW over the next few days, before
weakening late in the week.

[AlphaToOmega]

We are only six hours away, but the GFS and other models are still very enthused.


The NHC and Meteo-France are taking note of the system.

SPECIAL FEATURES

A strong 1017 mb low pressure that resides along a robust
surface trough extending from 28N27W to 12N41W is supporting
gale-force winds as of 15Z in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area of
CAPE VERDE. These winds have generated swell that is causing
seas of 7 to 9 ft to reach as far west as 40W. In addition, a
broad area of scattered moderate convection is observed on
satellite imagery from 17N to 28N, east of 36W to the W African
coast. The winds are forecast to diminish below gale-force at
25/0000 UTC. Please, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast, that is on the website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-ma ... andlarge/m
etarea2 for more details.

[AlphaToOmega]

SPECIAL FEATURES

A strong 1014 mb low pressure that resides along a robust
surface trough extending from 29N28W to 12N40W is supporting
gale-force winds. These winds have generated swell that is
causing seas of 7 to 9 ft to reach as far west as 40W. In
addition, a broad area of scattered moderate convection is
observed on satellite imagery from 17N to 28N, east of 37W to
the W African coast. The winds are forecast to diminish below
gale-force at 25/0000 UTC. Please, refer to the Meteo-France
High Seas Forecast, that is on the website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-ma ... andlarge/m
etarea2 for more details.

[cycloneye]

[AlphaToOmega]

https://i.imgur.com/ckzcEE7.gif

I wonder why the NHC has not mentioned this in a Tropical Weather Outlook.

[tolakram]

It's over 24C water and doesn't look very tropical?

[aspen]

Looks pretty decent right now. There seems to be a developing LLC with an associated blob of convection. Seems worthy of a STWO and a 30-50% chance of development, but its window is closing soon.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Is now a nice naked circulation.

[aspen]

Is now a nice naked circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/0yBHjEd.gif

It got so close. Crazy that we’ve seen three attempts at TCG in the Western Hemisphere this month.