Strongest Landfalling Tropical Cyclone(s)?

[Foxfires]

The tropics don't have much (tropical cyclone-wise) as of present, so how about we look to the past: What - according your own opinion/analysis - was the world's strongest tropical cyclone(s) at landfall on record, and how intense was it (both in terms of wind speed and pressure)?

[Category5Kaiju]

In recent times, I would say that Dorian and Haiyan are very much at the cream of the crop. Imho, Dorian's central landfall pressure may have been slightly less than 910 mbar (wasn't there an unofficial reading of 909 mbar recorded somewhere?) and its wind speed was likely 185 mph. Haiyan's central pressure imho was more like 885-890 mbar, and its windspeeds around the 190-195 mph range.

[Yellow Evan]

Meranti at Itbayat seems the obvious pick.

[aspen]

In recent times, I would say that Dorian and Haiyan are very much at the cream of the crop. Imho, Dorian's central landfall pressure may have been slightly less than 910 mbar (wasn't there an unofficial reading of 909 mbar recorded somewhere?) and its wind speed was likely 185 mph. Haiyan's central pressure imho was more like 885-890 mbar, and its windspeeds around the 190-195 mph range.

909mb was the lowest extrapolated pressure recorded by any of the recon planes, and was measured right before its first Bahamas landfall. I remember that Josh Morgerman recorded 913mb, but I don’t recall off the top of my head exactly where he was located and how long Dorian was over land before he got that measurement.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Guys, did y’all forget about Tropical Cyclone Winston? 884mb landfall?
2015

[Yellow Evan]

Guys, did y’all forget about Tropical Cyclone Winston? 884mb landfall?
2015

Winston is likely (and a lot of storms in the South Pacific) overestimated due to the cold tropopause inflating satellite intensity estimates fwiw.

[NotoSans]

Meranti at Itbayat seems the obvious pick.

In terms of pressure likely yes, but in terms of winds I have doubt because Meranti clearly is undergoing an ERC when crossing Itbayat.

And I’d argue Labor Day is a strong candidate.

[Foxfires]

Meranti at Itbayat seems the obvious pick.

In terms of pressure likely yes, but in terms of winds I have doubt because Meranti clearly is undergoing an ERC when crossing Itbayat.

And I’d argue Labor Day is a strong candidate.

Yes Meranti probably wins in the pressure department but was beginning an eyewall replacement around that time. Although I am curious how much that would lower the winds in comparison to if it had that pressure while not going through an EWRC, and if the fact that it had just started makes a difference in comparison to if it was halfway through.

For the Labor Day Hurricane, I do agree, it was a very small/compact storm, maybe around 170kt, but I'm going a bit more conservative because I'm not sure how accurate the wind field data from 1935 is.

I also want to mention Mahina, as 880mb was recorded off the coast of Queensland (not official), and the storm did eventually hit Queensland (although it may have strengthened or weakened by that point), however there isn't size data on that so it could basically be anywhere from 165-185kt which doesn't really narrow it down to anything but "very strong".

[Shell Mound]

In the Atlantic basin, the 1935 Labor Day hurricane is almost certainly the strongest. Given a MSLP of 892 mb and an eye (RMW) of at most ~7 n mi (~5 n mi) in diameter, along with explosive deepening and observed impacts, MSW at landfall on the Florida Keys were probably at least 175 kt, on a par with Haiyan’s MSW at the latter’s nearshore peak offshore of the Philippines. Written descriptions and photographs indicate that vegetation was debarked and static electricity generated by airborne granules during the 1935 hurricane. (Vegetation was also debarked during the Great Hurricane of 1780 and Irma in the Lesser Antilles; Iota on San Andrés; Andrew and Michael in Florida; and Haiyan and Goni in the Philippines.) Estimated gusts during the 1935 LDH were as high as ~215 kt!

Based on eyewitness testimonies and posthumous surveys, I would venture that Camille (1969) holds second place in the Atlantic basin, and was likely on the order of 160–165 kt at landfall in Mississippi. Radar imagery showed a closed, compact inner eye at the time of landfall, similar to the infamous “doughnut” that is observed in “top-tier” cyclones. Various readings from within the RMW confirm that the MSLP was likely no higher than ~900 mb, and possibly even slightly lower.

Both Janet (1955) and Dean (2007) were compact, rapidly intensifying cyclones prior to landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula. I would argue that both cyclones were probably on the order of 160 kt at landfall (reconnaissance likely missed the strongest winds in Dean, and Janet was even smaller in size than Dean was). During Janet a station at Chetumal, located near the northern eyewall, observed winds of 152 kt before the eye arrived. Even if a gust, this was extremely impressive.

The 1924 Cuba hurricane, David (1979), Irma, and Dorian were all likely on the order of 155 kt at their strongest landfalls. David in particular is likely underestimated, as satellite and reconnaissance suggest that it was deepening significantly prior to impacting the Dominican Republic, while the small size and estimated MSLP of the 1924 hurricane suggest that its MSW was higher than 145 kt at landfall. As has been mentioned, Dorian’s MSW was likely a bit < 160 kt.

Gilbert, Andrew, and Maria were probably on the order of 150 kt at landfall on the Yucatán, South Florida, and Dominica, respectively.

[MarioProtVI]

In the Atlantic basin, the 1935 Labor Day hurricane is almost certainly the strongest. Given a MSLP of 892 mb and an eye (RMW) of at most ~7 n mi (~5 n mi) in diameter, along with explosive deepening and observed impacts, MSW at landfall on the Florida Keys were probably at least 175 kt, on a par with Haiyan’s MSW at the latter’s nearshore peak offshore of the Philippines. Written descriptions and photographs indicate that vegetation was debarked and static electricity generated by airborne granules during the 1935 hurricane. (Vegetation was also debarked during the Great Hurricane of 1780 and Irma in the Lesser Antilles; Iota on San Andrés; Andrew and Michael in Florida; and Haiyan and Goni in the Philippines.) Estimated gusts during the 1935 LDH were as high as ~215 kt!

Based on eyewitness testimonies and posthumous surveys, I would venture that Camille (1969) holds second place in the Atlantic basin, and was likely on the order of 160–165 kt at landfall in Mississippi. Radar imagery showed a closed, compact inner eye at the time of landfall, similar to the infamous “doughnut” that is observed in “top-tier” cyclones. Various readings from within the RMW confirm that the MSLP was likely no higher than ~900 mb, and possibly even slightly lower.

Both Janet (1955) and Dean (2007) were compact, rapidly intensifying cyclones prior to landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula. I would argue that both cyclones were probably on the order of 160 kt at landfall (reconnaissance likely missed the strongest winds in Dean, and Janet was even smaller in size than Dean was). During Janet a station at Chetumal, located near the northern eyewall, observed winds of 152 kt before the eye arrived. Even if a gust, this was extremely impressive.

The 1924 Cuba hurricane, David (1979), Irma, and Dorian were all likely on the order of 155 kt at their strongest landfalls. David in particular is likely underestimated, as satellite and reconnaissance suggest that it was deepening significantly prior to impacting the Dominican Republic, while the small size and estimated MSLP of the 1924 hurricane suggest that its MSW was higher than 145 kt at landfall. As has been mentioned, Dorian’s MSW was likely a bit < 160 kt.

Gilbert, Andrew, and Maria were probably on the order of 150 kt at landfall on the Yucatán, South Florida, and Dominica, respectively.

Does debarked vegetation usually occur at C5 intensity? If so that could be another sign Iota still was a C5 briefly.

[CrabKingMike]

In the Atlantic basin, the 1935 Labor Day hurricane is almost certainly the strongest. Given a MSLP of 892 mb and an eye (RMW) of at most ~7 n mi (~5 n mi) in diameter, along with explosive deepening and observed impacts, MSW at landfall on the Florida Keys were probably at least 175 kt, on a par with Haiyan’s MSW at the latter’s nearshore peak offshore of the Philippines. Written descriptions and photographs indicate that vegetation was debarked and static electricity generated by airborne granules during the 1935 hurricane. (Vegetation was also debarked during the Great Hurricane of 1780 and Irma in the Lesser Antilles; Iota on San Andrés; Andrew and Michael in Florida; and Haiyan and Goni in the Philippines.) Estimated gusts during the 1935 LDH were as high as ~215 kt!

Based on eyewitness testimonies and posthumous surveys, I would venture that Camille (1969) holds second place in the Atlantic basin, and was likely on the order of 160–165 kt at landfall in Mississippi. Radar imagery showed a closed, compact inner eye at the time of landfall, similar to the infamous “doughnut” that is observed in “top-tier” cyclones. Various readings from within the RMW confirm that the MSLP was likely no higher than ~900 mb, and possibly even slightly lower.

Both Janet (1955) and Dean (2007) were compact, rapidly intensifying cyclones prior to landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula. I would argue that both cyclones were probably on the order of 160 kt at landfall (reconnaissance likely missed the strongest winds in Dean, and Janet was even smaller in size than Dean was). During Janet a station at Chetumal, located near the northern eyewall, observed winds of 152 kt before the eye arrived. Even if a gust, this was extremely impressive.

The 1924 Cuba hurricane, David (1979), Irma, and Dorian were all likely on the order of 155 kt at their strongest landfalls. David in particular is likely underestimated, as satellite and reconnaissance suggest that it was deepening significantly prior to impacting the Dominican Republic, while the small size and estimated MSLP of the 1924 hurricane suggest that its MSW was higher than 145 kt at landfall. As has been mentioned, Dorian’s MSW was likely a bit < 160 kt.

Gilbert, Andrew, and Maria were probably on the order of 150 kt at landfall on the Yucatán, South Florida, and Dominica, respectively.

Your Camille claim is completely unproven. Same with your LDH claims. Also, you should be taking large caution with eyewitness accounts as they are prone to large exaggeration (p.s: I doubt granules flew with so much force, that electricity was generated in the air similarly to cloud-based lightning?). I believe you have to come up with more comprehensive and accurate evidence to support most of your claims here if there are any.

[CrabKingMike]

Research involving remote sensing (eye temperature anomalies, which seem to be pretty accurate compared with recon data) and Cape Wessel obs at the time of this frame (~13z) suggested Monica being in the lower 900s as it made landfall on that tiny strip of land. Maybe this could be considered as one of the stronger landfalls, as low 900s usually corresponds to 155kt 1-min sustained winds.

Research paper:
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/1/1/15/htm

[Kingarabian]

Goni?

[Hayabusa]

Goni?

In modern records in 1 minute wind the choices for the strongest landfalling TC are Haiyan, Meranti or Goni. JTWC analyzed Haiyan made landfall at 165 knots, Meranti over Itbayat at 165 knots, Goni's 170 knots peak was at 18Z and made landfall at 20:50Z, so it's arguable whether Goni was still at its peak at that time. JTWC made a special discussion for Haiyan but nothing for Meranti, so I doubt they would also make for Goni. Maybe they would again if a typhoon peaked more than 170 knots.

[mrbagyo]

Goni?

In modern records in 1 minute wind the choices for the strongest landfalling TC are Haiyan, Meranti or Goni. JTWC analyzed Haiyan made landfall at 165 knots, Meranti over Itbayat at 165 knots, Goni's 170 knots peak was at 18Z and made landfall at 20:50Z, so it's arguable whether Goni was still at its peak at that time. JTWC made a special discussion for Haiyan but nothing for Meranti, so I doubt they would also make for Goni. Maybe they would again if a typhoon peaked more than 170 knots.

I think Haiyan is still the king. Haiyan just basically relaxed the intensity estimation constraint usually employed by JTWC on typhoons.

[Yellow Evan]

Goni was never more than 905ish based on land observations we have at landfall anyway. Haiyan is likely around 908 mbar similarly IIRC.

[CrabKingMike]

Yeah, I reviewed Haiyan's data a few months ago, seems to suggest no lower than ~900mb. et al. Shimada 2016 also arrived at a 906mb central pressure:

 https://twitter.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1460015504396066818

[aspen]

Yeah, I reviewed Haiyan's data a few months ago, seems to suggest no lower than ~900mb. et al. Shimada 2016 also arrived at a 906mb central pressure:

https://twitter.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1460015504396066818

How much time was there between Haiyan’s peak and its 906-908mb landfall? If it wasn’t long and its filling rate was low (<3-5 mbar/hr), then it would suggest Haiyan did not exceed Tip’s lowest pressure; I remember seeing an analysis extrapolating an 858mb peak pressure before landfall. Haiyan instead could’ve peaked in the high 880s or low 890s like Hagibis (892mb per the JTWC), Halong, and Surigae (both 888mb).

[Foxfires]

Yeah, I reviewed Haiyan's data a few months ago, seems to suggest no lower than ~900mb. et al. Shimada 2016 also arrived at a 906mb central pressure:

https://twitter.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1460015504396066818

How much time was there between Haiyan’s peak and its 906-908mb landfall? If it wasn’t long and its filling rate was low (<3-5 mbar/hr), then it would suggest Haiyan did not exceed Tip’s lowest pressure; I remember seeing an analysis extrapolating an 858mb peak pressure before landfall. Haiyan instead could’ve peaked in the high 880s or low 890s like Hagibis (892mb per the JTWC), Halong, and Surigae (both 888mb).

Should be roughly 3-9 hours. Peaked at 12Z but JTWC states it held it's peak for 6h. Whether or not it actually did is up to debate. I haven't really looked through IR/microwave imagery so maybe it did or maybe it didn't.

About the ~900mb thing for landfall, I've read somewhere that 892mb was recorded in the eye? As far as I'm aware this was not verified. I'm not sure if it was denied or just ignored/forgotten.

[CrabKingMike]

Yeah, I reviewed Haiyan's data a few months ago, seems to suggest no lower than ~900mb. et al. Shimada 2016 also arrived at a 906mb central pressure:

https://twitter.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1460015504396066818

How much time was there between Haiyan’s peak and its 906-908mb landfall? If it wasn’t long and its filling rate was low (<3-5 mbar/hr), then it would suggest Haiyan did not exceed Tip’s lowest pressure; I remember seeing an analysis extrapolating an 858mb peak pressure before landfall. Haiyan instead could’ve peaked in the high 880s or low 890s like Hagibis (892mb per the JTWC), Halong, and Surigae (both 888mb).

It was roughly 3 hours. Even then, I doubt it was filling in. The presentation was pretty steady-state. Eye temp and eye dryness were nearly constant, storm maintained a symmetric CDO and intense eyewall scattering (not really indicative of a weakening storm unless affected by shear, which can inflate these returns, updraft should've been more than sufficient to feedback into the storm and stabilize it at least), and there was no indication of EWRC until right at landfall (which those signs immediately disappeared, possibly due to land interaction). To have the storm in the high 880s-low 890s, the storm would've had to implode.

That analysis likely used the Dvorak/AH77 wind-pressure relationship; Haiyan was a T8.0, which corresponds to 858mb on the WPAC spectrum of it so