When will the first hurricane be classified in North Atlantic?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Apr 22, 2022 12:36 pm

This is an important poll for the members to participate and will close on May 31st at 1:36 PM EDT. There are 8 options to vote.

JetFuel_SE · #2 Postby **JetFuel_SE** » Fri Apr 22, 2022 12:44 pm

Watch it happen in May so we're all wrong lmao.

Category5Kaiju · #3 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Fri Apr 22, 2022 12:54 pm

Hehehe, I am going to be a wacko daredevil and predict that this season will throw a wrench into the usual first hurricane formation timing that we have seen the past several years. June it is!

Hurricane2021 · #4 Postby **Hurricane2021** » Fri Apr 22, 2022 9:30 pm

June 11 - 20
Alex the first hurricane and major.
just an guess :lol:

DorkyMcDorkface · #5 Postby **DorkyMcDorkface** » Fri Apr 22, 2022 9:42 pm

Chose late July, perhaps a WCarib/Bay of Campeche or Gulf cane, nothing major, probably cat 1/2. Think Dolly '08 for the former or Hanna 2020 for the latter.

FireRat · #6 Postby **FireRat** » Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:58 am

Picked June lol, my guess would be late June, like around the 25th to 30th. Alex 2010 is on my mind

Shell Mound · #7 Postby **Shell Mound** » Sat Apr 23, 2022 5:40 am

August 11-20 (everything that forms prior to then will be a weak S/TS)

AlphaToOmega · #8 Postby **AlphaToOmega** » Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:56 pm

1998: First storm attained hurricane intensity on August 22, 82 days after the start of hurricane season
2001: First storm attained hurricane intensity on September 9, 100 days after the start of hurricane season
2005: First storm attained hurricane intensity on July 6, 35 days after the start of hurricane season
2010: First storm attained hurricane intensity on June 30, 29 days after the start of hurricane season
2011: First storm attained hurricane intensity on August 21, 81 days after the start of hurricane season
2020: First storm attained hurricane intensity on July 25, 54 days after the start of hurricane season

The average of all of these analogs is 63.5 days after the start of hurricane season, which is August 4, so for now, I will vote for August 1-10.

JetFuel_SE · #9 Postby **JetFuel_SE** » Sun Apr 24, 2022 2:11 am

cycloneye wrote:This is an important poll for the members to participate and will close on May 31rst at 1:36 PM EDT. There are 8 options to vote.

Maybe change June prediction in the poll to "June or earlier"?

#10 Postby **wxman57** » Sun Apr 24, 2022 9:46 am

JetFuel_SE wrote:Watch it happen in May so we're all wrong lmao.

There have been three occasions since 1950 when the first hurricane formed prior to June 1. In 1951, a hurricane formed on May 15. In 1970, a hurricane formed on May 17. In 2016, a hurricane formed on Jan 11. Of course, prior to modern satellite in the mid 1970s, it is possible that a pre-season hurricane could have been missed. The average date is near the end of July, though that average has trended a little later in recent decades.

Audrey2Katrina · #11 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Sun Apr 24, 2022 10:23 am

Going with June... I well remember June 27, 1957 -- Audrey, not just the first hurricane, and first storm, but a Major.... And despite what revisionists write 60+ years after the fact, I'm convinced was a very much Cat 4... maybe not at landfall; but too many ships reporting winds and gusts over 145 mph.(One over 165) Not looking to start any arguments, just expressing my opinion to which I'm entitled--and I was very much around at the time. I believe she still holds the record as the earliest major in the basin. I'm not saying this one will be a major, but late in June, probably Western Caribbean, into Gulf (and please lord after Laura, Delta, Zeta, and Ida in the last two years--not to mention several tropical storms--Give Louisiana a break!)

A2K

#12 Postby **AnnularCane** » Sun Apr 24, 2022 1:21 pm

June, Cat 1. Don't know when, possibly later in the month though.

#13 Postby **Frank P** » Sun Apr 24, 2022 2:04 pm

3rd week in June. Typical sheared system in the eastern GOM and making landfall in the Panhandle. Will be a TS until about 6 hours before landfall then upgraded to a Cat 1 cane. We will spend the next week or two arguing about the whether or not the upgrade to Hurricane was justified, all the while complaining how terrible the storm looked on satellite. :lol:

Kohlecane · #14 Postby **Kohlecane** » Tue Apr 26, 2022 5:07 am

Frank P wrote:3rd week in June. Typical sheared system in the eastern GOM and making landfall in the Panhandle. Will be a TS until about 6 hours before landfall then upgraded to a Cat 1 cane. We will spend the next week or two arguing about the whether or not the upgrade to Hurricane was justified, all the while complaining how terrible the storm looked on satellite.

You have summarized this very well :lol:

DorkyMcDorkface · #15 Postby **DorkyMcDorkface** » Tue Apr 26, 2022 6:02 am

Frank P wrote:3rd week in June. Typical sheared system in the eastern GOM and making landfall in the Panhandle. Will be a TS until about 6 hours before landfall then upgraded to a Cat 1 cane. We will spend the next week or two arguing about the whether or not the upgrade to Hurricane was justified, all the while complaining how terrible the storm looked on satellite.

Cindy 2005 comes to mind, although that was upgraded post-season.