How strong will the ‘big one’ of the 2022 NATL season be?

[Beef Stew]

Mods, please turn this into a poll with the following options:

How strong will the ‘big one’ of the 2022 NATL season be?

Less than 140 mph
140-145 mph
150-155 mph
160-165 mph
165-170 mph
175 mph or greater

Seeing as we’ve officially kicked off the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season, I thought I’d ask- what will the MSW of the season’s strongest hurricane be? Will this be the first year since 2019 that we get another official Category 5, or will we see another year with ‘just’ a strong Category 4… or possibly even less?

Bonus: which storm(s) will it be, and what will the MSLP be? Discuss.

[Category5Kaiju]

Considering this is a List 2 year, I would not be surprised if the strongest storm of the season is a bona fide Cat 5

[kevin]

I'll go extremely specific even though I have no idea at all.

Hurricane Owen
*Sometime in the Sept 21 - Sept 31 timeframe
*Caribbean cruiser, first landfall as a cat 1 on Saint Lucia
*Afterwards it struggles a bit, but bombs out into a MH two days later
*Peaks as a cat 5 before an EWRC brings it down to a cat 4, which is the strength at which it makes landfall in Yucatan (closest analog is probably hurricane Janet but a bit weaker at landfall)
*Bonus = when Owen reaches its peak the recon mission into the storm is postponed, resulting in Eta/Sam flashbacks on the forum. The mission eventually does reach Owen and finds the peak intensity listed below. However, the postponement will result in an speculative discussion whether Owen might've been a sub-900mb hurricane at some point before.
*Cat 5 / 155 kt / 904 mbar

[cycloneye]

Made this question as a poll that will be open until June 16 at 5:23 AM EDT.

[115MphAgatha]

Hedging my bets on low end C5. Both 2020 and 2021 didn't even manage that (although Iota was operationally and Sam got tantalizingly close), and I doubt anything beyond 165 mph is a possibility.

As for a name, probably Ian.

[tolakram]

High end cat 4 seems like a lock, cat 5's are rare, should be rare, and I have no idea if we'll see one this year or not.

[aspen]

High end cat 4 seems like a lock, cat 5's are rare, should be rare, and I have no idea if we'll see one this year or not.

Maybe we’ll get yet another high end Cat 4 that has spotty recon coverage at its peak and people spend months debating whether it was a 4 or a 5, like Eta and Sam. If neither 2020 nor 2021 could produce a definitive Cat 5, then odds are low for 2022, especially if the year’s Big One gets horrible recon luck.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I think if we can get a storm over that super loop, we could see a 185 mph monster.

[Hurricane2021]

Hurricane HERMINE
- Will peak with winds of 180 mph and 905 mbar
- Long-Lived CV hurricane
- 55 - 65 Units of ACE
- Hurricane Sam 2.0

[FireRat]

Hurricane Shary or Tobias
190 MPH
895 mbar
Late October

A close analog would be Mitch 1998.

[ElectricStorm]

My guess is:
Hurricane Ian
150mph
935mb

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh, looks like I could get to have even more fun with being detailed (wrote my earlier response very late at night lol).

In that case, I am going to say that it will be Paula. Forms in late September, CAR cruiser, peaks as a solid 180 mph, 906 mbar storm near Jamaica. Takes a path very similar to Ivan, except it takes a sharp NE curve and hits Sarasota directly as a low end Cat 5 or high end Cat 4 in mid-October (restrengthens a bit after passing over the Loop Current). Has wx enthusiasts talking about this storm for the next billion or so years , and every time a future storm ends up in the WCAR in mid-October, chants of "Paula 2.0" emanate from the crowds.

The WMO retires Paula in 2023 and replaces it with either Phoebe or Paige for the 2028 season.

*this is very hypothetical and will likely not even verify, but at least I took my shot at it

[kevin]

Considering how detailed our descriptions are getting, I think that if anyone actually gets this right they'll have storm2k bragging rights for the entirety of next season .

[Category5Kaiju]

Considering how detailed our descriptions are getting, I think that if anyone actually gets this right they'll have storm2k bragging rights for the entirety of next season .

This is literally like a highly specific, expert-level difficulty version of "what will 2022's big ones be," although I definitely think there's a nonzero chance that someone here will indeed get the name of at least one of 2022's "big ones" correct, maybe including what category it becomes too (exact location and strength are going to be even trickier to predict at this point in time). If anything, I think those who say "Ian" will be the big one may end up being correct, though if this season decides to pull a late-season monster, then I could see any name after "Martin" or so being fair game

[AnnularCane]

150-155 mph, probably 155, many debates over whether or not it was really a Cat 5, driving everyone nuts.

I don't know which specific name though. Maybe one of the boys.

[AlphaToOmega]

Let us look at the fastest storms among my analogs: 2001, 2005, 2010, and 2020

• Iris (2001): 125 kt
• Wilma (2005): 160 kt
• Igor (2010): 135 kt
• Iota (2020: 135 kt

The average wind speed is 138.75 kt, which rounds to 140 kt. Therefore, I am choosing 160-165 mph.

[captainbarbossa19]

I voted 160-165 mph. I think we get a Cat 5 this year and next year is below-average.

[IcyTundra]

Hurricane Karl
155 MPH
924 MB

* Forms sometime between August 24-31.
*CV long tracker
* Strengthens into a cat 3 north of Puerto Rico.
*Slight weakening down to a cat 2 as it tracks WNW just north of the Greater Antilles.
*Tracks WNW through the Florida Straits but as it enters the Gulf Karl begins to move due W as the ridge that had been directing Karl strengthens.
* Passes over the loop current causing Karl to RI strengthening from 100 MPH to 155 MPH.
*Rounds the western periphery of the ridge and makes landfall in Freeport, Texas as a 150 MPH cat 4.

[Hurricane2021]

Hurricane HERMINE
- Will peak with winds of 180 mph and 905 mbar
- Long-Lived CV hurricane
- 55 - 65 Units of ACE
- Hurricane Sam 2.0

I also have another big one. I don't know if I can post two, but I'll post anyway.
(But only Hermine will count, not this one)


Hurricane VIRGINIE
- Will peak with winds of 175 mph and 910 mbar.
- Will have a similar track to Wilma/Delta in Mid-October
- Will have a Rapid Intensification phase, going from Category 1 to 5 in 48 Hours
- Will produce 18 - 24 Units of ACE

[zal0phus]

My "big one" for this year is also Paula, weirdly enough, it has been since I realized this naming list was coming up.
-Hurricane Paula (Category 5); forms in mid-October
-Peaks 165 mph-180 mph and pressure in the lower 910s
-Explosively intensifies from a TS or Cat 1 to a Cat 5 within two days
-Forms in lower Caribbean and shoots north across or around Cuba towards Florida
-Either hits Tampa Bay or crosses the Miami metro area from the southwest, in both cases making impact as a low-end Cat 5 or high-end Cat 4
Regardless I feel like this year is going to be a horrid wake-up call for south Florida, so to speak. I know there's no set return period but the prolonged MH drought seems primed to end.