11 AM advisory on Isabel=13.6n-34.5w center more south

[cycloneye]

http://www.hwn.org/hapt33us.htm

[Weathermaster]

:o

Cycloneye:

This new position to the south, put islands in more danger, dont you think?

[cycloneye]

http://www.hwn.org/hadt43us.htm

Here is the discussion from the 11 AM advisory but the question is is there going to be a weakeness as Avila says????

[tropicsPR]

What means SSTS in the discussion?

[Stormsfury]

What means SSTS in the discussion?

SSTs = Sea Surface Temperatures

[wx247]

Yes... the warmer the SST's the better it is for a tropical system, assuming the rest of the conditions are favorable as well. I believe that 80º is the normal threshold.

[msbee]

discussion at this point indicates that Isabel would pas North of the islands as did Fabian
am I correct?
120HR VT 11/1200Z 18.0N 56.5W 65 KT

[Anonymous]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 061449
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH ISABEL
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HAS A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND. THE
OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS BUT THE NORTHEAST. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS INDICATED BY
GLOBAL AND SHIPS MODELS. IN ADDITION...SSTS ARE INCREASING ALONG
THE PATH OF ISABEL. THEREFORE...STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED AND
ISABEL MAY BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.

MORE RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 AT 12 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF ISABEL...A
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE APPROACHES A WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 13.6N 34.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 13.7N 36.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 14.0N 39.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 14.5N 41.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 15.0N 44.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 16.0N 48.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 17.0N 51.9W 65 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 18.0N 56.5W 65 KT






.......but as Avila mentioned above, at 96 to 110 hours out, the subtropical ridge may weaken and this may be nothing more than a fish spinner. I am not forecasting, just an observation IMHO.


-Jeb