Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[CyclonicFury]

The GFS and ICON have been occasionally developing this wave as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, in as soon as 3 days.

From latest TWD:

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 54W from 03N
to 21N moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is confined to within 120 nm east of the wave
from 08N to 10N. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
west of the wave from 07N to 09N.

[cycloneye]

[skyline385]

https://i.postimg.cc/d0nP279m/gfgs.png

We'll see. Ironic this is the one area NHC does not have a lemon

I don’t see why they wouldn’t tag it at 2. The GFS, ICON, and HWRF-P are all on board, and development could occur as early as 72-84 hours from now.

Definitely see it getting a lemon soon, the development is also within 120 hours now


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[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems to show the SA wave becoming Danielle before any other system and look at the steering, could be a threat later in the period

[Category5Kaiju]

Danielle, is that you? Like, for real?

No I agree, this SA system should get an AOI soon. Would be interesting to watch, considering I would think that the W. Atlantic would have less mid-level dry air issues compared to the open Atlantic, at least for now.

[Hurricaneman]

This run of the GFS would put Jamaica on high alert, this needs to be watched as this could become a sneaky possible hurricane later in the period

[Hurricaneman]

We'll see. Ironic this is the one area NHC does not have a lemon

I don’t see why they wouldn’t tag it at 2. The GFS, ICON, and HWRF-P are all on board, and development could occur as early as 72-84 hours from now.

Definitely see it getting a lemon soon, the development is also within 120 hours now


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The Euro somewhat too

[skyline385]

Just need some more support from ensembles


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[cycloneye]

[Cpv17]

Just need some more support from ensembles


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The 0z EPS had some ensemble support for this. Albeit wasn’t the strongest signal, it was decent though.

[SouthFLTropics]

https://i.imgur.com/ppaL0G.png

Well this is surely going to wake the neighbors up. It's going to turn north at some point I would guess. So the question is who in the GOM gets it or does it escape and scrape up the eastern seaboard.

[skyline385]

Is this going to be a Charlie repeat lol? That’s going to put Florida on high alert for this season


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[BobHarlem]

Really compact here

[sma10]

Geez, I guess we've been overdue for a Cleo-like track. It's been almost 60 years

[cycloneye]

[tolakram]

There has been some run to run consistency on the GFS with this.

[cycloneye]

[skyline385]

Is this going to be a Charlie repeat lol? That’s going to put Florida on high alert for this season


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It’s going to happen isn’t it




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[tolakram]

Trend under 5 days

[gatorcane]

Just need some more support from ensembles


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Does any other reliable model besides the GFS show development? Looks like an outlier right now.