2023 EPAC Season

[aspen]

There’s a strong chance that the EPac fails to produce a hurricane before the Atlantic, and that’s insane, especially for an El Niño year. Also a non-zero chance we’ll go the rest of the month without a single NS. The -PMM and overkill +AMO SSTA configurations are likely to blame for this weirdly backwards Western Hemisphere.

[Yellow Evan]

Mid-level ridging over the basin is increasing stability and its surface counterpart is likely limiting cyclonic vorticity.

[Zonacane]

Mid-level ridging over the basin is increasing stability and its surface counterpart is likely limiting cyclonic vorticity.

There goes the SW monsoon season. Hopefully we get a rainy winter.

[NDG]

Fairly unusual easterly shear over the EPAC region during an EL Nino.

[NDG]

I expect something similar to 1987 in that the EPAC season didn't really get started until July despite a moderate El Nino already in place by the start of the season, cooler waters taking over between Baja & Hawaii by the start of the season may have something to do with it like it may have this season.

I'm not surprised by the EPAC's slow start. I said it a month ago.
CanSIPS nailded it! Dry sinking air over MX and south of it has kept the breeding grounds for early tropical development in the EPAC in tap.

[Kingarabian]

I expect something similar to 1987 in that the EPAC season didn't really get started until July despite a moderate El Nino already in place by the start of the season, cooler waters taking over between Baja & Hawaii by the start of the season may have something to do with it like it may have this season.

https://i.imgur.com/1kBluNg.png

I'm not surprised by the EPAC's slow start. I said it a month ago.
CanSIPS nailded it! Dry sinking air over MX and south of it has kept the breeding grounds for early tropical development in the EPAC in tap.

https://i.imgur.com/8N6ylTo.gif

Basically the -PMM which was actually modeled out since February.

[galaxy401]

EPAC has been awfully silent after the Atlantic spawned two MDR systems.

[cycloneye]

12z euro develops in medium range.

[Kingarabian]

12z euro develops in medium range.

https://i.imgur.com/dmCLl0j.gif

GFS has also been trying in this area as well. We'll see if it happens. I mean it should develop but wouldn't be surprised if nothing materializes, considering the area where they want to develop.

[dexterlabio]

Didn't 1997 also have trouble keeping things active in this region until July?

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has two on medium and long range. Looks like the models may be ticking up activity that has been absent so far.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS continues to insist on an uptick in the medium range as a result of CCKW passage. ECMWF less so but it at least has a system.

[cycloneye]

NHC has area of interest.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 20 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico...
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred
miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Conditions appear
favorable for some development of this system early next week while
it moves generally west-northwestward parallel to the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg/Roberts

[Yellow Evan]

EPS has -VP over the basin for much of July but be aware that the nature of EPS mean means it hides dispersion.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 20 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico...
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred
miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Conditions appear
favorable for development of this system early next week while it
moves generally west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[Kingarabian]

Models still showing a decent TC off of SW Mexico by the end of the month. 12z suite came in weaker but at least it's still there.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jun 20 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico...
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred
miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Conditions appear
favorable for development of this system early next week while it
moves generally west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 21 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico...
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred
miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Conditions appear
favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[NDG]

If anything forms next week I doubt much will come out of it, Euro forecasts easterly shear to dominate the area south of MX.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 21 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico...
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred
miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Conditions appear
favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Roberts