Low Pressure Just SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[Extratropical94]

We have a lemon!

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop during the
middle part of this week over the far eastern Atlantic between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the west coast of Africa. Some slow
development of this system is possible later this week as it moves
west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[wxman57]

It's a lemon, all right. Probably won't amount to much.

[Spacecoast]

It's important to stay hydrated..

[chaser1]

It's important to stay hydrated..
https://i.ibb.co/D40Rt7f/ea8.jpg

#prune

[abajan]

It's a lemon, alright. Probably won't amount to much.

I'm surprised they reckon the 7-day formation chance is 20%.
10% seems more reasonable. But I may eat my words later.

[Landy]

Pretty notable uptick from 18z GFS.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop in a few days over
the far eastern Atlantic between the Cabo Verde Islands and the west
coast of Africa. Some slow development of this system is possible
later this week as it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Nimbus]

It's a lemon, all right. Probably won't amount to much.

The odds of getting three lemons on a slot machine is 1/1000.

[BobHarlem]

That wave over Africa...

[St0rmTh0r]

That wave over Africa...

https://i.imgur.com/fccYlxi.gif

wth!!! largest wave ive ever seen

[Landy]

That wave over Africa...

https://i.imgur.com/fccYlxi.gif

I would use imagery from Meteosat-10 which can be found at https://cyclonicwx.com/floater/africa/ir/, helps greatly with satellite angle issues here that GOES-16 has.

[abajan]

That wave over Africa...

https://i.imgur.com/fccYlxi.gif

I would use imagery from Meteosat-10 which can be found at https://cyclonicwx.com/floater/africa/ir/, helps greatly with satellite angle issues here that GOES-16 has.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857017650042503178/1140490267510702080/1691984465628766.gif?width=1155&height=684

I just had a look at the latest satellite imagery of that wave. The formerly impressive convection has practically fizzled to nothing.

[BobHarlem]

This one's up to 30%

Note NHC site seems to be having issues again, this outlook was on one of the backup sources.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Wednesday or early Thursday. Some slow development of this system
will be possible late this week while the system moves gradually
west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[abajan]

This one's up to 30%

Note NHC site seems to be having issues again, this outlook was on one of the backup sources.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Wednesday or early Thursday. Some slow development of this system
will be possible late this week while the system moves gradually
west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Yep. I had to use https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ab/ ... two.at.txt to see the update.

[LarryWx]

The biggest land concerns for this AEW if there is ever going to be any are the CV Islands.

[ouragans]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Wednesday or early Thursday. Some slow development of this system is
possible late this week or over the weekend while the system moves
gradually west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[LarryWx]

The latest UKMET develops this into a TD but then dissipates it:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 15.6N 29.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.08.2023 72 15.7N 31.0W 1008 29
0000UTC 19.08.2023 84 15.0N 32.9W 1007 34
1200UTC 19.08.2023 96 15.1N 33.8W 1007 28
0000UTC 20.08.2023 108 15.8N 35.2W 1007 24
1200UTC 20.08.2023 120 17.6N 36.6W 1008 34
0000UTC 21.08.2023 132 CEASED TRACKING

[LarryWx]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system
is forecast to move toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph, with
an area of low pressure forming in a couple of days near or just to
the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Further development of the
low is possible over the weekend before environmental conditions
become unfavorable early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[LarryWx]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 15.7N 31.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2023 72 16.4N 32.5W 1008 32
1200UTC 19.08.2023 84 17.0N 34.2W 1007 35
0000UTC 20.08.2023 96 17.2N 35.9W 1007 37
1200UTC 20.08.2023 108 17.5N 38.3W 1007 30
0000UTC 21.08.2023 120 18.1N 40.8W 1009 29
1200UTC 21.08.2023 132 19.2N 43.4W 1009 28
0000UTC 22.08.2023 144 20.2N 45.9W 1009 27
1200UTC 22.08.2023 156 21.5N 48.5W 1010 27
0000UTC 23.08.2023 168 22.2N 50.7W 1010 28

[abajan]

Excerpt from 8 AM Tropical Weather Update:

A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system
is forecast to move toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph, with
an area of low pressure expected to form in a day or so near or
just to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Further development of
the low is possible, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend before environmental conditions become unfavorable early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.