Tropical Wave in the SE GOMEX (Is Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves generally
westward, potentially nearing the western Gulf of Mexico coastline
in about a week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Ianswfl]

Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves generally
westward, potentially nearing the western Gulf of Mexico coastline
in about a week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

So the NHC doesn't buy the GFS solution going into South FL a hurricane.

[IcyTundra]

Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves generally
westward, potentially nearing the western Gulf of Mexico coastline
in about a week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

So the NHC doesn't buy the GFS solution going into South FL a hurricane.

This is a different system. The 18Z GFS has the Florida system developing in about 10 days.

[IcyTundra]

Good thread by Levi Cowan talking about this system.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1691490298986373120




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1691490303264612352




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1691490309795110912

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1691595487755878868

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1691529857568587776





 https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1691529872466710528

[cycloneye]

Good news for portions of Texas if this future system stays as a wave.

 https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1691643140803838173

[IcyTundra]

The ridge has to trend weaker or move further north if we want to get any drought relief in the Houston area.

[Stratton23]

GFS has a sub 1000 mb TS making landfall in brownsville, man we need that ridge to trend weaker, i am sick of the heat, wish we could just get rid of this stubborn ridge for good

[Ivanhater]

00Z Euro throws a wrench in things. Swings the low into the Northern Gulf Coast



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[Nimbus]

There is already a low level circulation evident near 11N -34W.
This is the system that 18Z GFS swung around Bermuda.
Western gulf next week must be local system or from western Caribbean?

[cycloneye]

For the record from the 2 AM TWO:

Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[REDHurricane]

There is already a low level circulation evident near 11N -34W.
This is the system that 18Z GFS swung around Bermuda.
Western gulf next week must be local system or from western Caribbean?

I think the Gulf system will be the wave currently approaching Puerto Rico, bolded in the NHC discussion from this morning: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/MIATWDAT.html

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is just off the coast of Africa near 17W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N E of 20W. This system is forecast to move toward the west-northwest, with an area of low pressure forming in a couple of days near or just to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Further development of the low is possible over the weekend before environmental conditions become unfavorable early next week.

The axis of a tropical wave is in the central Atlantic near 37W/38W, from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 32W and 41W. A perturbation has developed in association to the tropical wave within the monsoon trough. The tropical wave will continue moving westward while this perturbation remains in its wake. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this perturbation, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while moving toward the west or west- northwest across the central tropical Atlantic.

The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Caribbean near 63W, from 18N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 58W and 62W.

The axis of a tropical wave is moving across Central America near 86W, from the Gulf of Honduras southward into the east Pacific, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Nimbus]

There is already a low level circulation evident near 11N -34W.
This is the system that 18Z GFS swung around Bermuda.
Western gulf next week must be local system or from western Caribbean?

I think the Gulf system will be the wave currently approaching Puerto Rico, bolded in the NHC discussion from this morning: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/MIATWDAT.html

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is just off the coast of Africa near 17W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N E of 20W. This system is forecast to move toward the west-northwest, with an area of low pressure forming in a couple of days near or just to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Further development of the low is possible over the weekend before environmental conditions become unfavorable early next week.

The axis of a tropical wave is in the central Atlantic near 37W/38W, from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 32W and 41W. A perturbation has developed in association to the tropical wave within the monsoon trough. The tropical wave will continue moving westward while this perturbation remains in its wake. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this perturbation, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while moving toward the west or west- northwest across the central tropical Atlantic.

The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Caribbean near 63W, from 18N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 58W and 62W.

The axis of a tropical wave is moving across Central America near 86W, from the Gulf of Honduras southward into the east Pacific, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras.

That makes sense they put lemon up for waves which could develop and need warnings in the near term. For the perturbation advisories you will have to look at the Satellite imagery yourself or wait till they lock the CA thread with an invest then move to the active forum .

[NDG]

I think how far north the vorticity with the tropical wave forecasted to come across the GOM early next week tracks initially over the Bahamas and FL before it gets influenced by the heat ridge which is forecasted to move north towards the central US will dictate how much precipitation the northern gulf coast & TX will get out of it.
With the SSTs very warm with an UL anticyclonic flow over it, ~60 hrs to travel across the GOM is more than enough time that it could spin up really fast like we have seen many times in the GOM.
Dry continental air with the heat ridge might become a problem but indeed the heat ridge moves enough far north it will take the dry air away from the GOM.

Despite the Euro forecasting a stronger ridge it forecasts the system to track farther north than what the GFS shows.
For now I will split the difference between the two which will still bring some beneficial rains to the gulf coast & TX.

[wxman57]

There is already a low level circulation evident near 11N -34W.
This is the system that 18Z GFS swung around Bermuda.
Western gulf next week must be local system or from western Caribbean?

It is the wave just crossing the Lesser Antilles around 61-62W. Top part of the wave moves into the SE Gulf Sunday. Likely won't develop, but there's a chance we could get some rain in SE TX.

[Wampadawg]

We need that darn Death Ridge to nudge north just a little, everyone bring your electric fans out and point them north

[LadyBug72]

We need that darn Death Ridge to nudge north just a little, everyone bring your electric fans out and point them north

Is it even forecasted to move?

[Tailgater33]

We need that darn Death Ridge to nudge north just a little, everyone bring your electric fans out and point them north

It’s all those damn windmills y’all have over there
57 you might like the 12z Icon.