The new tracking model run http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR out at 00Z shows a more north of west component and if this is true then it bears out the NHC comment that the center had reformed a little south. The intensity models also bring Isabel to hurricane strength by Sunday night - not so difficult to believe.
I am still of the view that Isabel will follow a classic Fabian path and that is to track about 275-280 degrees and then from there in three days - just off the northern Leeward Islands, I have no thoughts as yet.
Looking at the latest loop between 2215UTZ and 0115UTC - it seems as though Isabel has gone backward - NE - a tad .... yeah I know .... I'm a little bonkers tonight. Hurricanes in the Atlantic do not travel west at this latitude.
Renata
New model run curtails due west movement
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cycloneye
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Welcome Renata to storm2k.But still is too early to say one thing or another about Isabel missing or not the islands because of the long distance now.
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Thanks ... good to be here ... but
Hi,
It is true that one cannot say for certainty what will happen in five days time because it is subject to many variables. Those variables we can make an educated guess based on the present atmospheric/oceanic conditions and on model projects and then update our thoughts every 12 hours based on new model runs.
We are almost agreed, aren't we, that Isabel will continue in a general westward direction because of a strong ridge to the north that is serving to guide her. By "west" in mean from WSW to WNW direction. After day three, we are all a bit fuzzy but we can make some guesstimates.
There is a trough that is expected to create a weakness in the ridge to take Isabel northward but we all have some questions which can't be answered right now and these, of course determine whether she misses the islands or not.
One question is whether Isabel will continue on a track further south than projected. If so, will the troughing be strong enough or far enough south to influence Isabel? Another question is whether Isabel will be a hurricane by then and how strong a hurricane will she be? Will she be strong enough to create her own environment?
Quite true that we cannot make an accurate guess right now but we can do some educating guessing, can't we.
At the end ... we do need to monitor carefully and not let her out of siight.
Good to be on board here ... the other "improved" board was driving me nuts.
It is true that one cannot say for certainty what will happen in five days time because it is subject to many variables. Those variables we can make an educated guess based on the present atmospheric/oceanic conditions and on model projects and then update our thoughts every 12 hours based on new model runs.
We are almost agreed, aren't we, that Isabel will continue in a general westward direction because of a strong ridge to the north that is serving to guide her. By "west" in mean from WSW to WNW direction. After day three, we are all a bit fuzzy but we can make some guesstimates.
There is a trough that is expected to create a weakness in the ridge to take Isabel northward but we all have some questions which can't be answered right now and these, of course determine whether she misses the islands or not.
One question is whether Isabel will continue on a track further south than projected. If so, will the troughing be strong enough or far enough south to influence Isabel? Another question is whether Isabel will be a hurricane by then and how strong a hurricane will she be? Will she be strong enough to create her own environment?
Quite true that we cannot make an accurate guess right now but we can do some educating guessing, can't we.
At the end ... we do need to monitor carefully and not let her out of siight.
Good to be on board here ... the other "improved" board was driving me nuts.
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dixiebreeze
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