Our candidates:
Henri, the french-sounding candidate:
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
...and Isabelle, our young long-tracker:
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
"Tropical Troubles Ahead!," says the Euro
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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JetMaxx
If tonight's ECMWF is on-target -- southern Florida and the Bahamas are in for a world of hurt around 9/15-16.
The 168 hr prog...for Saturday morning 9/13 depicts Isabel (IMO likely a intense hurricane at the time) just north of Hispanola with high pressure ridging across the Atlantic to it's north....and the 1016 mb isobar farther west than day 6 -- indicating Isabel is likely to continue WNW toward the Florida Keys and south Florida.
If I lived in or had interests in southern Florida and the Bahamas, I'd keep a very close watch on Isabel...and begin preparing...just in case (find out your evacuation routes/ shelters; stock up on supplies...esp. batteries; prune tree limbs and other objects that could cause damage in hurricane force winds, etc).
The 7 day ECMWF was only off on Fabian by 150-200 miles...so if this has that same accuracy ratio, someone in or near Florida and the Bahamas will have a major hurricane bearing down on them in a week or so :o
The 168 hr prog...for Saturday morning 9/13 depicts Isabel (IMO likely a intense hurricane at the time) just north of Hispanola with high pressure ridging across the Atlantic to it's north....and the 1016 mb isobar farther west than day 6 -- indicating Isabel is likely to continue WNW toward the Florida Keys and south Florida.
If I lived in or had interests in southern Florida and the Bahamas, I'd keep a very close watch on Isabel...and begin preparing...just in case (find out your evacuation routes/ shelters; stock up on supplies...esp. batteries; prune tree limbs and other objects that could cause damage in hurricane force winds, etc).
The 7 day ECMWF was only off on Fabian by 150-200 miles...so if this has that same accuracy ratio, someone in or near Florida and the Bahamas will have a major hurricane bearing down on them in a week or so :o
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HeatherAKC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 286
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 2:28 pm
- Location: Miami Lakes, Florida
I can only tell you...
.....living in S.Fla and with many of us still carrying Andrew memories in the back of our minds, if this verifies, we can expect mass chaos. Only *if* it is a major storm. Other than that, yes. We are complacient.
**Fogive my spelling errors**
**Fogive my spelling errors**
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JetMaxx
Deena, I use the Plymouth State University "make your own model" page.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbcalc.html
You can choose your own settings....ECMWF-Global is only one of the models you can utilize there.
I recommend the following settings..
1) Central America map grid (shows all the Caribbean and SW Atlantic)
2) Sea Level pressure
3) 10m AGL (850 and 500 mb levels are also useful)
4) 4 mb isobar spacing
The ECMWF only runs once a day...always in the early evening hours. It only produces forecast progs (charts) available for 24 hr, 48 hr, 3 day, 4 day, 5 day, 6 day, and 7 days into the future.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbcalc.html
You can choose your own settings....ECMWF-Global is only one of the models you can utilize there.
I recommend the following settings..
1) Central America map grid (shows all the Caribbean and SW Atlantic)
2) Sea Level pressure
3) 10m AGL (850 and 500 mb levels are also useful)
4) 4 mb isobar spacing
The ECMWF only runs once a day...always in the early evening hours. It only produces forecast progs (charts) available for 24 hr, 48 hr, 3 day, 4 day, 5 day, 6 day, and 7 days into the future.
Last edited by JetMaxx on Sat Sep 06, 2003 10:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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