Tropical Wave South of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 91L)

[zzzh]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave has recently emerged off the west coast of Africa
and is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some gradual development of this system during the middle to
latter portions of next week while it moves westward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Again, the 2023 track.

[emeraldislenc]

We have really been fortunate with the pattern of the waves rolling off of Africa. It really could have been a very devastating season.

[Hurrilurker]

CONUS and the islands leading a fairly charmed life this season. Enjoy it while you can.

[Sciencerocks]

[Category5Kaiju]

So there's actually a non-zero chance we reach 18 (or possibly more) NSs in the Atlantic during a moderate El Nino year?

[Ianswfl]

We have really been fortunate with the pattern of the waves rolling off of Africa. It really could have been a very devastating season.

Imagine if the pattern was like 2004. If course 2004 had a lot of trofs but the storms found the right timing under the ridges to hit fl like charley, frances, and jeanne.

[WalterWhite]

So there's actually a non-zero chance we reach 18 (or possibly more) NSs in the Atlantic during a moderate El Nino year?

I would be surprised if we do not. In fact, I would be surprised if we do not at least reach 21 storms in the Atlantic by the end of this season, given that the 1991-2020 climatology suggests 4 storms usually form between September 23 and December 31.

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some gradual development of this system during the
middle to latter portions of next week while it moves westward
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[ThunderForce]

I haven't seen the eastern and central Atlantic this active in a long time. Seems we're getting at least one new tropical wave every week.

Hopefully this will start moving northwest pretty early like the NHC's cone is currently showing.

[IsabelaWeather]

We have really been fortunate with the pattern of the waves rolling off of Africa. It really could have been a very devastating season.

Not really, IMO. PR gets 1/3 to 1/2 of its average rain from tropical disturbances. The reservoir near my house has not made ANY appreciable rises this year, it is still at its typical low point at the end of the dry season. We really need some of these systems to impact PR while - ideally - not having intense winds.

[sunnyday]

When will this one turn north or recurve?

[IsabelaWeather]

When will this one turn north or recurve?

I don't understand, why don't you look at nhc.gov and see the forecast track?

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure with disorganized shower activity has
formed several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form around midweek
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 91L is up