Possible Development in the Central / SW Caribbean (Is Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

8 PM= Up to 30%. The yellow cone is more east south of Mona Channel.

A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the
central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the
system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph towards Central
America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[ronjon]

We had majors in the past in this area (thinking of you Mitch and Wilma) at this time of year. Throw in the fact we really haven't had a major storm rip thru the Caribbean this year (lots of latent heat stored up) and what we just witnessed with the RI of Otis into Mexico from the east pac...well...I'll be watching this one.

[ThunderForce]

Has a major hurricane ever directly impacted the CONUS at that strength in November?

[Hurricane2022]

Has a major hurricane ever directly impacted the CONUS at that strength in November?

Maybe Kate '85?

[SFLcane]

We had majors in the past in this area (thinking of you Mitch and Wilma) at this time of year. Throw in the fact we really haven't had a major storm rip thru the Caribbean this year (lots of latent heat stored up) and what we just witnessed with the RI of Otis into Mexico from the east pac...well...I'll be watching this one.

Same watching this one. Ceiling is about as high as it can get if this avoids Central America.

[ThunderForce]

Has a major hurricane ever directly impacted the CONUS at that strength in November?

Maybe Kate '85?

It did make it to Category 3 with winds of 120 mph, but it made landfall as a low-end Category 2 with 100 mph winds.

[boca]

Where is the genesis of this system?

[Teban54]

Has a major hurricane ever directly impacted the CONUS at that strength in November?

Maybe Kate '85?

Kate made landfall as a low-end Cat 2, despite peaking as a major in the Gulf.

[mitchell]

GFS having a wild happy hour Saturday. Takes a strong cane into Miami.

Might be one of the the crazier Happy Hour GFS runs I have seen in a while. Yeah right GFS not happening :

https://i.postimg.cc/y8q8hJdm/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh180-384.gif

It just seems so implausible that any storm, regardless atmospheric support, could maintain 950-965 mb strength while being inland over Cuba or running along the north coast for 48+ hours. Hard to see a model ever spitting out that solution. It seems like with half (or more) of the circulation over land (much of it hilly to mountainous) the circulation would take a much bigger hit.

[Category5Kaiju]

What I'm especially amazed by is that we're actually talking about the possibility of a significant hurricane in the Caribbean Sea in November during a strong El Nino. This is like the last thing that should be happening given the ENSO background state

[cycloneye]

GFS having a wild happy hour Saturday. Takes a strong cane into Miami.

Might be one of the the crazier Happy Hour GFS runs I have seen in a while. Yeah right GFS not happening :

https://i.postimg.cc/y8q8hJdm/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh180-384.gif

It just seems so implausible that any storm, regardless atmospheric support, could maintain 950-965 mb strength while being inland over Cuba or running along the north coast for 48+ hours. Hard to see a model ever spitting out that solution. It seems like with half (or more) of the circulation over land (much of it hilly to mountainous) the circulation would take a much bigger hit.

To let you know that moved your post from the global models thread to here.

[SFLcane]

Potential depression by wed/thurs.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1718767482259788139

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/wxmanms1/status/1718801690487312515

[Teban54]

[cycloneye]

Wow, also HAFS-B parent from 96L has a powerful 910mb.

[zzzh]

I won't take it seriously at all. That's why I posted that in 'crazy model run' thread

[Fancy1002]

Wow, also HAFS-B parent from 96L has a powerful 910mb.

https://i.imgur.com/oSSmBqQ.gif

Check out the IR.

[SFLcane]

Not a fan of using parent domains but just illustrating how things can get out of control quick here environment looks crazy favorable.

[shansgonefishin]

Certainly a watch and wait type scenario for us here in the Cayman Islands. Our most recent November memories were of Paloma, which caught many off guard with how quickly she spun up and came through. Our Doppler Radar is out of action, just a heads up if this does get going and anyone’s looking to view it, hopefully it won’t be needed.