2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[869MB]

So looking ahead, the key questions I have regarding the 2024 Hurricane Season will be exactly how long will it take for a fully coupled El Nino background state to transition into a fully coupled Neutral background state? And after that, exactly how long will it take for this forthcoming Neutral/Weak La Nina background state to atmospherically teleconnect in the Atlantic Basin? The quicker this transition occurs and teleconnects to the Atlantic, theoretically, it should favor a more active peak season.

[WiscoWx02]

You know it's serious when Andy Hazelton says this:
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1735321814555832515?t=uraP_I8x22h4-uipZbh1cw&s=19

A trade surge to cool the tropical Atlantic is quite likely in my opinion, I don’t really think we’ll be holding on to the signature we currently have going into next year. Wave breaking will be another possible fail mode like we saw in 2022. Potential is there but I’m not taking any of it seriously yet and won’t until June if signs still point to the potential. Just my thoughts.

What makes you say there will be wavebreaking? Things like that aren't easy to pinpoint this far out. We can use climate factors however to know that in years that we see el nino to la niña transitions like what will probably be next year, the atlantic tends to warm up quite significantly due to weakened hadley cell as mentioned and usually a -NAO that takes shape and helps keep the atlantic warm.

The possibility is always there, even if it's a small possibility. My line of thinking is more so this year the Atlantic was really warm, but then years after it sorta "cool" down to more so of a slightly above average look. I think of 2017 and 2020, where those years saw exceptionally warm SSTA's across the Atlantic but the following year things cooled down to closer to normal and the ++AMO was gone for the most part. That's why I am thinking the same may happen next year.

[Teban54]

A trade surge to cool the tropical Atlantic is quite likely in my opinion, I don’t really think we’ll be holding on to the signature we currently have going into next year. Wave breaking will be another possible fail mode like we saw in 2022. Potential is there but I’m not taking any of it seriously yet and won’t until June if signs still point to the potential. Just my thoughts.

What makes you say there will be wavebreaking? Things like that aren't easy to pinpoint this far out. We can use climate factors however to know that in years that we see el nino to la niña transitions like what will probably be next year, the atlantic tends to warm up quite significantly due to weakened hadley cell as mentioned and usually a -NAO that takes shape and helps keep the atlantic warm.

The possibility is always there, even if it's a small possibility. My line of thinking is more so this year the Atlantic was really warm, but then years after it sorta "cool" down to more so of a slightly above average look. I think of 2017 and 2020, where those years saw exceptionally warm SSTA's across the Atlantic but the following year things cooled down to closer to normal and the ++AMO was gone for the most part. That's why I am thinking the same may happen next year.

2017 and 2020 are both La Nina years. 2023 is a strong El Nino.

[mixedDanilo.E]

A trade surge to cool the tropical Atlantic is quite likely in my opinion, I don’t really think we’ll be holding on to the signature we currently have going into next year. Wave breaking will be another possible fail mode like we saw in 2022. Potential is there but I’m not taking any of it seriously yet and won’t until June if signs still point to the potential. Just my thoughts.

What makes you say there will be wavebreaking? Things like that aren't easy to pinpoint this far out. We can use climate factors however to know that in years that we see el nino to la niña transitions like what will probably be next year, the atlantic tends to warm up quite significantly due to weakened hadley cell as mentioned and usually a -NAO that takes shape and helps keep the atlantic warm.

The possibility is always there, even if it's a small possibility. My line of thinking is more so this year the Atlantic was really warm, but then years after it sorta "cool" down to more so of a slightly above average look. I think of 2017 and 2020, where those years saw exceptionally warm SSTA's across the Atlantic but the following year things cooled down to closer to normal and the ++AMO was gone for the most part. That's why I am thinking the same may happen next year.

yea but 2017 and 2020 were also el nino transition into la nina years like 2024 will likely be plus 2023 wasn't really active on the level of 2017 and 2020 at least in ACE despite high NS count.

[SFLcane]

As always it will come down to how steering sets up next Aug which can't be predicted this far out but one should expect an increased threat to the Conus as a whole. Right now i'd expect cool netural or weak la nina conditions for peak.

Dont want to get to much into ENSO talk but along with the SOI on the upward trend watch this equatorial pacific anomaly map in the coming months you can already see the growing pool of colder waters eroding the wamer anomalies.



Few interesting maps of what one could expect trackwise this upcoming hurricane season.

[SFLcane]

Bye bye...

[Hurricaneman]

The predicted model clues do show a nasty 2024 hurricane season and here are the positives as models

+West Africa Monsoon
+AMO look
La Niña
Scary steering currents

As of right now no one truly knows what 2024 will bring but as of right now be on your toes and prepared even if this hurricane season under performs as it only takes 1 to cause immense damage and suffering

[SFLcane]

The predicted model clues do show a nasty 2024 hurricane season and here are the positives as models

+West Africa Monsoon
+AMO look
La Niña
Scary steering currents

As of right now no one truly knows what 2024 will bring but as of right now be on your toes and prepared even if this hurricane season under performs as it only takes 1 to cause immense damage and suffering

To be frank I think now it’s likely the environment next year will be very favorable I think more focus more important should be placed on steering in the coming months. El Niños demise should be pretty steady.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1738474514235728222

[cycloneye]

The predicted model clues do show a nasty 2024 hurricane season and here are the positives as models

+West Africa Monsoon
+AMO look
La Niña
Scary steering currents

As of right now no one truly knows what 2024 will bring but as of right now be on your toes and prepared even if this hurricane season under performs as it only takes 1 to cause immense damage and suffering

To be frank I think now it’s likely the environment next year will be very favorable I think more focus more important should be placed on steering in the coming months. El Niños demise should be pretty steady.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1738474514235728222?s=20

Agree 100% Adrian. How will the NAO be in the comming months will be very important on both the steering and how warm the sst,s and ssta,s will be by ASO.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... .sprd2.png

[SFLcane]

The predicted model clues do show a nasty 2024 hurricane season and here are the positives as models

+West Africa Monsoon
+AMO look
La Niña
Scary steering currents

As of right now no one truly knows what 2024 will bring but as of right now be on your toes and prepared even if this hurricane season under performs as it only takes 1 to cause immense damage and suffering

To be frank I think now it’s likely the environment next year will be very favorable I think more focus more important should be placed on steering in the coming months. El Niños demise should be pretty steady.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1738474514235728222?s=20

Agree 100% Adrian. How will the NAO be in the comming months will be very important on both the steering and how warm the sst,s and ssta,s will be by ASO.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... .sprd2.png

https://i.imgur.com/k7pxhTI.png

Ssts I don’t expect to cool that much during the winter months if the ukmet model configuration below comes to pass with record heat in the main development region with any kind strong ridging there will certainly be big trouble looming.

[zzzh]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1739368529231507683



With this -NAO and a SSW in early January, the +++AMO pattern will likely sustain and reinforce itself.

[cycloneye]

Happy new year 2024 to all the members. I expect this thread to be very, very busy, so let's have great discussions without turning into heated exchanges.

Note=This thread is not to post forecast numbers but to discuss about how things are going among the factors this thread is enlisting. There will be our annual poll for that begins more early this year, on March 1, and as a matter of fact,this thread will help you a bit to decide about the numbers game with all the information that will be posted.

[NotSparta]

The MDR has really warmed up in the last little while. Impressive values again. Can't see why it would really go anywhere in the immediate future given a -NAO on the way. Big question is where it will be by late spring

[KatDaddy]

Happy New Year everyone and agree this thread will be interesting as we look ahead to the 2024 Hurricane Season. Looking forward to the 2024 National Tropical Weather Conference in April.

[weeniepatrol]

The MDR has really warmed up in the last little while. Impressive values again. Can't see why it would really go anywhere in the immediate future given a -NAO on the way. Big question is where it will be by late spring

Looking at raws, the MDR actually WARMED.. in December. Impressive.



Still early but if things (ENSO, MDR ssts) keep trending the way they are then this will be the easiest seasonal forecast since 2020 (obvious hyperactivity)

As you mentioned before, isn't it funny how not even that long ago an MDR of just +0.5C would have been considered impressive?

[cycloneye]

The MDR has really warmed up in the last little while. Impressive values again. Can't see why it would really go anywhere in the immediate future given a -NAO on the way. Big question is where it will be by late spring

Looking at raws, the MDR actually WARMED.. in December. Impressive.

https://i.imgur.com/vCN54QV.png

Still early but if things (ENSO, MDR ssts) keep trending the way they are then this will be the easiest seasonal forecast since 2020 (obvious hyperactivity)

As you mentioned before, isn't it funny how not even that long ago an MDR of just +0.5C would have been considered impressive?

I guess the S2K 2024 poll will be with the majority of members on the 17 and above named storms and the other two categories above the averages and it would be the first time since the poll has been up since 2005 that may be heavy on high numbers in the three slots.

[Hurricane2022]

The MDR has really warmed up in the last little while. Impressive values again. Can't see why it would really go anywhere in the immediate future given a -NAO on the way. Big question is where it will be by late spring

Looking at raws, the MDR actually WARMED.. in December. Impressive.

https://i.imgur.com/vCN54QV.png

Still early but if things (ENSO, MDR ssts) keep trending the way they are then this will be the easiest seasonal forecast since 2020 (obvious hyperactivity)

As you mentioned before, isn't it funny how not even that long ago an MDR of just +0.5C would have been considered impressive?

I guess the S2K 2024 poll will be with the majority of members on the 17 and above named storms and the other two categories above the averages and it would be the first time since the poll has been up since 2005 that may be heavy on high numbers in the three slots.

So could you consider opening the poll in March?

[zzzh]

Current MDR sst is at record high, about 0.3 degrees C higher than the previous record holder 2011.

[NotSparta]

The MDR has really warmed up in the last little while. Impressive values again. Can't see why it would really go anywhere in the immediate future given a -NAO on the way. Big question is where it will be by late spring

Looking at raws, the MDR actually WARMED.. in December. Impressive.

https://i.imgur.com/vCN54QV.png

Still early but if things (ENSO, MDR ssts) keep trending the way they are then this will be the easiest seasonal forecast since 2020 (obvious hyperactivity)

As you mentioned before, isn't it funny how not even that long ago an MDR of just +0.5C would have been considered impressive?

Easiest seasonal forecast since 2020? Where we are now is far beyond that. Things can change easily but this is a much more obvious active setup than even 2020

[cycloneye]

NAO is in negative territory and that means, warmer waters in MDR. This is the ECMWF ensemble plot.