2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#141 Postby REDHurricane » Fri Mar 29, 2024 8:58 am

34 NS/18 H/10 MH/299 ACE
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#142 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 29, 2024 9:06 am

REDHurricane wrote:34 NS/18 H/10 MH/299 ACE


You are #57 on the list of participants.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#143 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 29, 2024 9:15 am

Question for the stats members USTropics and TheAustinMan. What is the average so far for the ACE?
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#144 Postby USTropics » Fri Mar 29, 2024 11:01 am

cycloneye wrote:Question for the stats members USTropics and TheAustinMan. What is the average so far for the ACE?


Here is another chart that will auto update for users that have submitted ACE. This is a combo chart with the bar graph being total tropical cyclones forecasted. Overlayed are line graphs for ACE (values divided by 10 to easily fit on the graph), hurricanes, and major hurricanes:
Image

So far the highest forecasted ACE is 299, the lowest forecasted ACE is 141, and the current average for all forecasts is 198:
Interactive link - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQi_JAUQAqnMTdTXyQlyPvquM9Cvw6dYYrb-NyUVeYj3uEzMTqDvL988aIODOaE8phqeRbdlsMZ19BU/pubchart?oid=1017062082&format=interactive
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#145 Postby KirbyDude25 » Fri Mar 29, 2024 11:27 am

USTropics wrote:So far the highest forecasted ACE is 299, the lowest forecasted ACE is 141, and the current average for all forecasts is 198:
Interactive link - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQi_JAUQAqnMTdTXyQlyPvquM9Cvw6dYYrb-NyUVeYj3uEzMTqDvL988aIODOaE8phqeRbdlsMZ19BU/pubchart?oid=1017062082&format=interactive

If the average of our forecasts were to verify, it would be the 9th most active Atlantic hurricane season by ACE since 1851, between 1950 (211.3 ACE) and 1961 (188.9 ACE). The lowest forecast has almost the exact same ACE as 2016 (141.3), which ranks 31st in that sample, and the highest forecast would be by far the highest ACE ever recorded in the Atlantic, surpassing 1933's total of 258.6 by over 40.

Edit to add: 1851-2024 is 174 seasons, meaning that the lowest forecast in our poll would rank in the 82nd percentile, our average would rank in the 95th percentile, and the highest forecast would (obviously) rank in the 100th percentile.
Last edited by KirbyDude25 on Fri Mar 29, 2024 11:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#146 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri Mar 29, 2024 11:29 am

cycloneye wrote:Question for the stats members USTropics and TheAustinMan. What is the average so far for the ACE?


The average ACE guess from users that provided it is 198.3 and the average climatology-based ACE is 201.1. These both remain record values for the Storm2k poll.

The climatology-based ACE so far has ranged from 132 to 331 this year. The median is 198.3 and the interquartile (middle 50% of values) is 163-228. If Storm2k was to make a collective seasonal forecast by treating poll responses as "samples" of a normal distribution where the true mean were the actual season's values (definitely not a great/statistically sound practice, but this is just for fun), at α=0.005 the forecast ranges for the 2024 season could call for 21-25 named storms, 11-13 hurricanes, 5-6 major hurricanes, and 185-212 ACE.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#147 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 29, 2024 11:45 am

Thanks to both USTropics and TheAustinMan for doing the stats for this poll that are always important and in some ways entretaining. Keep them comming with new data until the poll closes on May 31rst at midnight EDT and after it closes, the final stats will be posted.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#148 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:52 am

23/11/6 ACE: 261
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#149 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 31, 2024 7:11 am

johngaltfla wrote:23/11/6 ACE: 261


You are #58 on the list of participants.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#150 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:29 pm

I think members are waiting for CSU to come out on thursday and then come to participate. But you can come and participate at any time and post the numbers as preliminary and then change them later before May 31rst.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#151 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Apr 01, 2024 3:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:I think members are waiting for CSU to come out on thursday and then come to participate. But, you can come and participate at any time and post the numbers as preliminary and then change them later before May 31rst.

In my case I'm just waiting for the CSU forecast to see if I'll need to change my numbers (#30) before making them final.

As for today I feel pretty comfortable with the bet I made. :D
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#152 Postby MHC Tracking » Mon Apr 01, 2024 5:26 pm

Preliminary numbers: 21/9/4, ACE 155
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#153 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 01, 2024 5:37 pm

MHC Tracking wrote:Preliminary numbers: 21/9/4, ACE 155


You are #59 on the list of participants.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#154 Postby StPeteMike » Tue Apr 02, 2024 4:30 pm

21 Named Storms/ 13 Hurricanes/ 5 MH
ACE: 190
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#155 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 02, 2024 4:42 pm

StPeteMike wrote:21 Named Storms/ 13 Hurricanes/ 5 MH
ACE: 190


You are #60 on the list of participants.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#156 Postby StormClouds63 » Wed Apr 03, 2024 8:40 pm

17/9/4 ACE=175 (final)
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#157 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 03, 2024 9:09 pm

StormClouds63 wrote:17/9/4 ACE=175 (final)


You are #61 on the list.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#158 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 04, 2024 10:15 am

Ok folks, CSU has released their April forecast, so now is the time for the members that have not come yet to post a set of numbers to do so.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#159 Postby Hurricane2022 » Thu Apr 04, 2024 10:46 am

Hurricane2022 wrote:29 TS/17 H/8 MH/ACE 245.........preliminary

29/17/8, ACE 250.
Final #30
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#160 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 04, 2024 12:18 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:29 TS/17 H/8 MH/ACE 245.........preliminary

29/17/8, ACE 250.
Final #30


Done.
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