2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

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cycloneye
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#81 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 14, 2024 5:27 am

Up to 34 participants. As always, will be in and out during the day to add new ones.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#82 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 14, 2024 7:49 am

Teban54 wrote:I wonder if some posters who only start browsing the forum closer to the hurricane season have not been aware of the early opening of this year's forecast poll.


Agree. As time gets closer to May 31, the pace will pick up, especially, when big news comes up, such as the CPC monthly ENSO updates and the release of forecasts from the experts. Today the March CPC ENSO update is being released and depending on how the news is in the update, members may post numbers.

Upcomming expert releases:

March 27=Accuweather
April 4=CSU
April 8=TSR
May 9=NOAA outlook
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#83 Postby Fego » Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:30 am

Here we go.
20 / 10 / 4

199 ACE.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#84 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:47 am

Fego wrote:Here we go.
20 / 10 / 4

199 ACE.


Welcome back. You are #35 on the list.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#85 Postby WoodberryWx » Thu Mar 14, 2024 4:39 pm

15/7/4 141 ACE

Preliminary
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#86 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 14, 2024 5:12 pm

WoodberryWx wrote:15/7/4 141 ACE

Preliminary


You are #36 on the list.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#87 Postby LemieT » Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:09 pm

Going with my wildest numbers to date:

20/16/5 - ACE: 175
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#88 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:15 pm

LemieT wrote:Going with my wildest numbers to date:

20/16/5 - ACE: 175


#37 on the list.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#89 Postby Woofde » Thu Mar 14, 2024 11:58 pm

Prelim numbers just based off of feel: 25/13/7.

Not sure how you get a more active look than this. The most important variable for the season (the AMO) is on fire. ENSO is swinging towards La nina. The PDO is likely to remain negative. The Subtropics are firmly average. I just don't see anything to inhibit the season as of now. Maybe something will present itself, but for now the sky is the limit.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#90 Postby kevin » Fri Mar 15, 2024 5:40 am

Sure, I'll join as well. Still preliminary as I want to do quite a bit more research in the coming weeks, but for now:
23 / 12 / 6
ACE: 205
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#91 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Mar 15, 2024 8:20 am

I'm hoping these are too high, but I fear they may not be.
Preliminary 21/11/7 ACE 225
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#92 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 15, 2024 8:25 am

Up to 40 participants. Will be in and out today so dont worry if you are not added quickly.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#93 Postby wxman57 » Fri Mar 15, 2024 1:10 pm

The graphic on the first page is not correct. The numbers are not additive. A forecast of 21/10/4, like yours, is not a forecast of 35 storms. You're forecasting only 21 named storms. The 4 major hurricanes is out of 10 total hurricanes, too. To plot this correctly, you would need to plot it as 11/6/4 (11 named storms, 6 hurricanes with 4 majors). For the spreadsheet, subtract the number of hurricanes from the total named storms and subtract the number of majors from the total number of hurricanes.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#94 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 15, 2024 1:26 pm

wxman57 wrote:The graphic on the first page is not correct. The numbers are not additive. A forecast of 21/10/4, like yours, is not a forecast of 35 storms. You're forecasting only 21 named storms. The 4 major hurricanes is out of 10 total hurricanes, too. To plot this correctly, you would need to plot it as 11/6/4 (11 named storms, 6 hurricanes with 4 majors). For the spreadsheet, subtract the number of hurricanes from the total named storms and subtract the number of majors from the total number of hurricanes.


What are your numbers to add you? :D
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#95 Postby wxman57 » Fri Mar 15, 2024 1:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:
wxman57 wrote:The graphic on the first page is not correct. The numbers are not additive. A forecast of 21/10/4, like yours, is not a forecast of 35 storms. You're forecasting only 21 named storms. The 4 major hurricanes is out of 10 total hurricanes, too. To plot this correctly, you would need to plot it as 11/6/4 (11 named storms, 6 hurricanes with 4 majors). For the spreadsheet, subtract the number of hurricanes from the total named storms and subtract the number of majors from the total number of hurricanes.


What are your numbers to add you? :D


My numbers are going to be pretty close to yours. I'll have to go check my PowerPoint to see the numbers.

Seriously, for column 1 (named storms) subtract the value from column 2 (hurricanes). For column 2 (hurricanes) subtract the value from column 3 (majors). Graphic will be correct, then. I looked at the graphic for the first time and was amazed that someone was forecasting over 60 named storms!

Here's a corrected version of the page 1 graphic:

http://wxman57.com/images/Forecast.jpg

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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#96 Postby TampaFl » Fri Mar 15, 2024 2:16 pm

For the 2024 Hurricane Season my prediction is: 23/15/6 A total of 23 named storms of which 15 become hurricanes and 6 of those becoming major hurricanes. Ace 211 Final
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#97 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 15, 2024 2:32 pm

wxman57 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
wxman57 wrote:The graphic on the first page is not correct. The numbers are not additive. A forecast of 21/10/4, like yours, is not a forecast of 35 storms. You're forecasting only 21 named storms. The 4 major hurricanes is out of 10 total hurricanes, too. To plot this correctly, you would need to plot it as 11/6/4 (11 named storms, 6 hurricanes with 4 majors). For the spreadsheet, subtract the number of hurricanes from the total named storms and subtract the number of majors from the total number of hurricanes.


What are your numbers to add you? :D


My numbers are going to be pretty close to yours. I'll have to go check my PowerPoint to see the numbers.

Seriously, for column 1 (named storms) subtract the value from column 2 (hurricanes). For column 2 (hurricanes) subtract the value from column 3 (majors). Graphic will be correct, then. I looked at the graphic for the first time and was amazed that someone was forecasting over 60 named storms!

Here's a corrected version of the page 1 graphic:

http://wxman57.com/images/Forecast.jpg

http://wxman57.com/images/Forecast.jpg


Send PM to USTropics as the graphic is his.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#98 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 15, 2024 2:32 pm

TampaFl wrote:For the 2024 Hurricane Season my prediction is: 23/15/6 A total of 23 named storms of which 15 become hurricanes and 6 of those becoming major hurricanes. Ace 211 Final


You are #41 on the list.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#99 Postby USTropics » Fri Mar 15, 2024 3:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
What are your numbers to add you? :D


My numbers are going to be pretty close to yours. I'll have to go check my PowerPoint to see the numbers.

Seriously, for column 1 (named storms) subtract the value from column 2 (hurricanes). For column 2 (hurricanes) subtract the value from column 3 (majors). Graphic will be correct, then. I looked at the graphic for the first time and was amazed that someone was forecasting over 60 named storms!

Here's a corrected version of the page 1 graphic:

http://wxman57.com/images/Forecast.jpg

http://wxman57.com/images/Forecast.jpg


Send PM to USTropics as the graphic is his.



It's a stacked bar graph to represent the actual values people are forecasting, not a cumulative bar graph of total tropical cyclones (and why I didn't put a y-label on the graph but have labels near the top). It would be better to have 3 separate bar graphs for each person, but that would get messy as the number of people submitting forecasts increases. I didn't want to cause confusion where someone says "I submitted x tropical storms but it's only showing y". With that said, here is a cumulative bar graph:

Image
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#100 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri Mar 15, 2024 10:14 pm

The 2024 Storm2K poll has been nothing short of anomalous, as far as expected activity is concerned. Using 1981-2010 averages, tropical storms produce 1.8 ACE, non-major hurricanes produce 7.7 ACE, and major hurricanes produce 24.1 ACE each, on average. With those values, the mean "climatology-based" ACE based on the guesses in this poll so far is 203.7 (for comparison, the average ACE from those who did provide ACE values is 199.7).

That value is far and away the highest in the over two decade history of this poll thus far, and it's not particularly close. It's ahead of the previous record holder (2006) by the equivalent of nearly an entire major hurricane, which is a lot from an averaging perspective.

As it currently stands, the 2024 poll has the record high in all categories (named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE).

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