2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

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2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 02, 2024 2:04 pm

Ok folks,here is the poll you were waiting for,the forecast numbers poll for, the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season that is here to forget about winter and talk about tropical weather and see how the season will be in terms of the numbers. Below are a few tips about this poll:

1-You can post your numbers whenever you want between March 10th at 1 PM EDT and May 31st at Midnight EDT when the poll closes. Also members can add a brief commentary if you want to do so about why you have the numbers you posted in the poll.

2-You can post a set of numbers and not change them anymore and in that case, I will consider your numbers as final.

3-If you have preliminary numbers and later post final ones, those will be posted with the word Final. If by May 31rst at Midnight EDT when the poll closes,there are still members that have preliminary numbers,I will consider them as final ones.

4-Unnamed Storms that may form in the North Atlantic basin will count as part of the numbers.

5-Any early named system(s) that may form before June 1rst will count for the set of numbers.

6-If a system is upgraded from a Tropical Storm to a Hurricane in Post-Season Report,it will count for the final tally to see which members came close or nailed the numbers.

7-(Optional) The ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) numbers for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season will not count for the poll but if any member wants to post what they think about how the ACE will be,go ahead.

8-Anyone can participate,from the pro mets,those who like Tropical Weather and like to track tropical systems,those who don't know a lot about tropical weather,and the newbies too are welcomed.I know that the numbers are not the most important thing in a season, but more important are where the storms will go,so it doesn't matter how many named storms form,as it only takes one storm to do all the damage to an area. However,it's always very interesting to make a poll like this to see what the members think about the numbers game and how active or not the season will turn out and at the end of the season, will see how many members get close or tie what the 2024 season will offer.

9-Dont worry if you are not added fast to the list because,as soon I come on-line, will be added. So let's get this thing rolling guys and gals and let's see if this 2024 poll has a better participation than the 2023 one,that only had 81 members participating. Can we do much better having 200+ participants?


10- If any member wants to look at the past polls since 2005, click the link that gets you to the Storm2k forecasting contest forum. https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=25

Good luck to all.

Image

Countdown for the poll to close

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... sive&csz=1


List of Participants:


1- cycloneye=24/12/5 (Final)

2- JetFuel_SE= 33/16/9 ACE: 280 (Final)

3- DorkyMcDorkface= 21/12/6 ACE: 195 (Final)

4- Teban54= 22/14/6 ACE: 210 (Final)

5- DioBrando= 32/17/9 ACE: 260 (Preliminary)

6- AnnularCane= 25/12/7 (Final)

7- ScottNAtlanta= 24/14/7 ACE: 220 (Preliminary)

8- CFLHurricane= 22/9/3 ACE: 222 (Final)

9- Stormybajan= 25/12/5 ACE: 196 (Final)

10- KirbyDude25= 26/13/6 ACE: 220 (Final)

11- Sciencerocks= 19/9/4 ACE: 184 (Final)

12- tolakram=18/11/4 ACE: 175 (Final)

13- wenniepatrol= 23/12/6 ACE: 190 (Preliminary)

14- USTropics= 25/13/6 ACE: 216 (Preliminary)

15- SFLcane = 22/10/5 ACE: 210 (Final)

16- ElectricStorm= 21/12/5 ACE: 180 (Final)

17- mixedDanilo.E= 36/17/9 (Preliminary)

18- wwwizard=24/13/6 (Final)

19- TheAustinMan= 19/12/5 ACE: 195 (Preliminary)

20- chaser1= 23/15/7 (Final)

21- Landy= 24/12/5 ACE: 198 (Final)

22- Old-TimeCane= 25/14/6 ACE: 205 (Final)

23- Iceresistance= 28/12/7 ACE: 240 (Preliminary)

24- Steve= 26/14/7 ACE: 212 (Preliminary)

25- Chris90= 22/12/6 ACE: 210 (Preliminary)

26- Beef Stew= 19/10/5 ACE: 178 (Final)

27- terstorm1012= 24/14/5 ACE: 160 (Final)

28- Hurricaneman= 24/14/7 ACE: 220 (Final)

29- tgenius=22/13/5 (Final)

30- Hurricane2022= 29/17/8 ACE: 250 (Final)

31- mcheer23= 26/10/6 ACE: 213 (Preliminary)

32- KN2731= 26/12/6 ACE: 215 (Final)

33- penguinzee= 27/16/7 ACE: 210 (Final)

34- AtlanticWind= 23/12/6. ACE: 205 (Final)

35- Fego= 20/10/4 ACE: 199 (Final)

36- WoodberryWx= 15/7/4 ACE: 141 (Preliminary)

37- LemieT= 20/16/5 ACE: 175 (Final)

38- Woofde= 24/13/6, ACE: 199 (Final)

39- kevin= 23/12/6 ACE: 220 (Preliminary)

40- vbhoutex= 22/11/8 ACE: 213 (Final)

41- TampaFl= 23/15/6 ACE: 211 (Final)

42- Kazmit= 23/10/5 (Preliminary)

43- TheWisestofAll= 26/15/7 (Final)

44- aspen= 20/8/3 ACE: 150 (Preliminary)

45- Gums= 22/10/5 (Final)

46- Chemmers= 21/11/8 (Final)

47- crownweather= 25/12/6 ACE: 225 (Final)

48- Stormblessed= 24/13/6 ACE: 240 (Final)

49- Kennethb= 22/9/4 ACE: 199 (Final)

50- CyclonicFury= 21/10/5 ACE: 180 (Preliminary)

51- Cat5James= 21/11/5 ACE: 195 (Final)

52- CrazyC83= 25/11/4 ACE: 142 (Preliminary)

53- Matlachamullethead= 23/11/5 ACE: 195 (Final)

54- ChrisH-UK= 26/12/5 ACE: 170 (Final)

55- NessFrogVenom= 22/10/4 ACE: 185 (Preliminary)

56- Audrey2Katrina= 23/9/3 ACE: 172 (Preliminary)

57- REDHurricane= 31/16/10 ACE: 269 (Final)

58- johngaltfla= 23/11/6 ACE: 261 (Final)

59- MHC Tracking = 24/12/6 ACE:195 (Final)

60- StPeteMike= 21/13/5 ACE: 190 (Final)

61- StormClouds63= 17/9/4 ACE: 175 (Final)

62- JtSmarts= 26/12/6 ACE: 202 (Preliminary)

63- ThomasW= 18/8/4 ACE: 150 (Preliminary)

64- hcane27= 16/6/2 ACE: 197 (Preliminary)

65- LarryWx= 21/10/5 ACE: 176 (Preliminary)

66- DEMI-TITAN6= 21/13/7 ACE: 193 (Final)

67- Category5Kaiju= 24/11/6 ACE: 210 (Final)

68- ouragans= 25/12/7 ACE: 255 (Final)

69- Lightning48= 22/11/4 (Final)

70- cainjamin=26/14/7 ACE: 231 (Final)

71- galaxy401= 20/8/4 ACE:175 (Preliminary)

72- Kohlecane= 23/13/6 ACE: 220 (Preliminary)

73- jasons2k= 27/16/7 ACE: 223 (Preliminary)

74- wxman57= 19/8/4 (Final)

75- Orlando_wx=24/15/6 ACE: 215 (Final)

76- Hybridstorm_November2001= 30/22/10 (Final)

77- jlauderdal= 17/9/4 (Final)

78- skyline385= 28/16/7 ACE: 230 (Final)

79- IcyTundra= 22/11/6 ACE: 215 (Final)

80- Cleveland Kent Evans= 27/13/8 (Final)

81- Kat5= 26/12/5 (Final)

82- Ntxw =23/11/6 ACE:188 (Final)

83- MGC= 17/8/3 ACE: 135 (Final)

84- Cyclenall= 21/10/5 ACE: 196 (Final)

85- South Texas Storm= 23/11/5 (Final)

86- wzrgirl1= 22/9/5 (Final)

87- hurricanehunter69= 20/9/4 (Final)

88- Monsoonjr99= 24/13/6 ACE: 199 (Final)

89- PavelGaborik10= 25/11/4 (Final)

90- AutoPenalti= 25/13/5 ACE: 235 (Final)

91- FireRat= 25/11/7 ACE: 225 (Final)

92- Taxman= 23/14/6 (Final)

93- Trader Ron= 19/9/4 (Final)

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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#2 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:00 pm

My (preliminary) prediction for 2024 is:
26 Tropical Storms.
14 Hurricanes.
7 Major Hurricanes.
230 ACE.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#3 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:04 pm

Man I wanted to be first :( anyway...
NS: 19
HU: 11
MH: 5
ACE: 200
(prelim)

I tend to avoid being ultra bullish in most cases but it's hard for me not to this time around
Last edited by DorkyMcDorkface on Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:11 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#4 Postby Teban54 » Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:04 pm

Preliminary: 20/12/6, 190 ACE
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#5 Postby Teban54 » Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:05 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Man I wanted to be first :( anyway...
NS: 19
HU: 11
MH: 5
ACE: 200
(prelim)

I tend to avoid being ultra bullish in most cases but it's hard for me not to this time around

You forgot that cycloneye always gets the first by virtue of being the person to make this post :lol:
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#6 Postby DioBrando » Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:22 pm

preliminary

32 ns
17 h
9 mh

260 ace
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#7 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:27 pm

19/8/5 - Preliminary


I don't normally post preliminary numbers if I'm reasonably certain of how active (or inactive) the season may be, which is the case for this year, but I feel like I might want to tweak these numbers some later on.

(19 storms is one of the highest I've predicted if not the highest, and yet I feel like I'm being conservative. :lol: )
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#8 Postby DioBrando » Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:30 pm

AnnularCane wrote:19/8/5 - Preliminary


I don't normally post preliminary numbers if I'm reasonably certain of how active (or inactive) the season may be, which is the case for this year, but I feel like I might want to tweak these numbers some later on.

(19 storms is one of the highest I've predicted if not the highest, and yet I feel like I'm being conservative. :lol: )

do you think it'll be like 2019?
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#9 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:37 pm

DioBrando wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:19/8/5 - Preliminary


I don't normally post preliminary numbers if I'm reasonably certain of how active (or inactive) the season may be, which is the case for this year, but I feel like I might want to tweak these numbers some later on.

(19 storms is one of the highest I've predicted if not the highest, and yet I feel like I'm being conservative. :lol: )

do you think it'll be like 2019?


Not really, there's probably a good chance of more than one retired storm.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#10 Postby DioBrando » Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:47 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:19/8/5 - Preliminary


I don't normally post preliminary numbers if I'm reasonably certain of how active (or inactive) the season may be, which is the case for this year, but I feel like I might want to tweak these numbers some later on.

(19 storms is one of the highest I've predicted if not the highest, and yet I feel like I'm being conservative. :lol: )

do you think it'll be like 2019?


Not really, there's probably a good chance of more than one retired storm.

how many do you think
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:47 pm

Thank to the members for not rushing at the opening of the poll.A good start so let's keep it going until May 31rst at midnight EDT and so far no final numbers as all are preliminary. See the graphic that is updating with every new set of numbers.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#12 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:51 pm

Here we go!!!
24 Named Storms
14 Hurricanes
7 Major Hurricanes

220 ACE (preliminary)

I will probably update ...or not in May before the poll closes. ACE might need to go up especially if it looks like lots of long track storms
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:54 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Here we go!!!
24 Named Storms
14 Hurricanes
7 Major Hurricanes

220 ACE (preliminary)

I will probably update ...or not in May before the poll closes. ACE might need to go up especially if it looks like lots of long track storms


Put you as preliminary.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#14 Postby DioBrando » Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Here we go!!!
24 Named Storms
14 Hurricanes
7 Major Hurricanes

220 ACE (preliminary)

I will probably update ...or not in May before the poll closes. ACE might need to go up especially if it looks like lots of long track storms


Put you as preliminary.


i edited my ace to 260 is it possible to edit please?
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 10, 2024 1:03 pm

DioBrando wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Here we go!!!
24 Named Storms
14 Hurricanes
7 Major Hurricanes

220 ACE (preliminary)

I will probably update ...or not in May before the poll closes. ACE might need to go up especially if it looks like lots of long track storms


Put you as preliminary.


i edited my ace to 260 is it possible to edit please?


Done.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#16 Postby DioBrando » Sun Mar 10, 2024 1:04 pm

cycloneye wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Put you as preliminary.


i edited my ace to 260 is it possible to edit please?


Done.

thank you
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#17 Postby CFLHurricane » Sun Mar 10, 2024 1:27 pm

22/9/3 ACE 222 Final :ggreen:
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#18 Postby Stormybajan » Sun Mar 10, 2024 1:30 pm

25/12/5 ACE: 196
Last year I wayy underestimated the record heat but this time around, NOPE going guns blazing from the get-go! :shoot:
Those latest CANSIPS,NMME , ECMWF and C3S model runs have convinced me to pack on an extra storm and 4 more ACE points. Had my mind made up on a hyperactive season for a longtime now since last year! All the signs point towards a historic season and at the LEAST, should be hyperactive... im think 1995 2.0 in terms of tracks and activity but not gonna go over 200 yet..excited to see what the professionals come up with next month! Really wonder if anything significant is gonna change between now and May 31st because right now I dont see it changing, just the closer we get..the more confirmation is added in to a potentially SCARY season especially for us in the caribbean :eek:
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 10, 2024 1:35 pm

cycloneye wrote:Thank to the members for not rushing at the opening of the poll.A good start so let's keep it going until May 31rst at midnight EDT and so far no final numbers as all are preliminary. See the graphic that is updating with every new set of numbers.


From the first 9 participants, there are two with final numbers.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#20 Postby KirbyDude25 » Sun Mar 10, 2024 2:05 pm

Preliminary numbers: 27 nameable storms, 14 hurricanes, 7 major hurricanes, 225 ACE

I'm by no means an expert, but considering just about every factor looks favorable according to the most recent models, I'm confident in predicting a very busy season. Hopefully they just stir some fish around, but we'll see.
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