2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

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TheAustinMan
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

#261 Postby TheAustinMan » Tue May 07, 2024 2:44 pm

Hey, it's my 1000th post on this forum!

It's early May, the seasonal computer forecast guidance is in, and we're getting within striking distance of the hurricane season, so it's time to revisit my forecast from earlier. I'll be revising my numbers (I'm Number 19) to
  • Preliminary
  • 19 named storms
  • 12 hurricanes
  • 5 major hurricanes
  • ACE = 195
Anecdotally, there seems to be a bit of a push to not designate short-lived storms, and without as high subtropical warmth in the Atlantic there might not be as many frontal-related genesis events over the subtropics and mid-latitudes to really ratchet up the storm count. Accordingly, I've lowered my forecast for the number of named storms a bit. However, in light of the warm Atlantic, cool neutral/La Nina, and strong equatorial Atlantic warmth (an "Atlantic Nino"), we may see an elevated potential for long-track MDR storms, increasing the potential for one or more long-track major hurricanes. I've increased my major hurricane prediction by 1, and my ACE guess accordingly.



The numbers above are pretty much taken out of a magical hat, but I'd like to post some possibly informative patterns we're seeing this year, in relation to climatology. On the left is a plot of seasons based on two factors: the SST anomaly over the Canary Current (the blue box) in April and the SST anomaly over a good portion of the MDR (the orange box). I've subtracted out the long-term trend between 1980 and present to separate out any possible effects of climate change. The size of the bubbles reflects the ACE in that season. You'll notice that if you're in the upper-right quadrant and it's a La Nina year, odds are it'll be an above active season. The blue 'X' marks where 2024 could end up on the chart, according to the NMME seasonal ensemble, which effectively puts the entire MDR at +1C above the 1981-2010 average (and about +0.5C above the trendline).

Source: Created using Python. ERSST data are available via NOAA PSL and NMME data are available via CPC, but you can view forecast graphics at Tropical Tidbits
Image

Here's something else. Consider the correlation between the upper-level velocity potential (where air spreads out or converges in the upper troposphere) during August/September/October and Atlantic ACE during the last 40 years:
Source: Created using Python using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 2.
Image

Compare this to what the CFS has forecast for ASO:
Source: TropicalTidbits
Image



And here's something else I did for fun. I took meteorological data from 20 random seasons between 1960 and the present, and using 6 parameters from April and May only (related to SST, heights, and winds aloft), tried to best fit a linear model to predict the ACE from just those ingredients. Basically, how well can we predict seasonal activity using only pre-season metrics? (This is actually pretty similar to what Phil and the folks at CSU do, though, they're much more rigorous and detailed and careful with their selection of predictors!) The plot on the top left shows how "important" the predictors are to the model. The model misses the mark pretty often, but shows maybe the slightest bit of utility. This isn't very vigorous, but hey, why not. The vertical blue lines mark the seasons that the model "trained" on.

Source: Created using Python. To reduce the "noise" caused by chance (e.g. one storm just happens to have a lot of ACE), the model is actually trained on climatology-based ACE, which I've talked about in this thread before.
Image

This model estimated 181 ACE for this year, which would actually be the second highest value since 1980 using that model.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

#262 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 07, 2024 3:42 pm

Thanks as always for the stats. Made the change to your numbers.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

#263 Postby REDHurricane » Tue May 07, 2024 3:51 pm

31 NS/16 H/10 MH

ACE: 269

Final, #57
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

#264 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 07, 2024 4:06 pm

REDHurricane wrote:31 NS/16 H/10 MH

ACE: 269

Final, #57


Done.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

#265 Postby Teban54 » Tue May 07, 2024 5:36 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:Hey, it's my 1000th post on this forum!

It's early May, the seasonal computer forecast guidance is in, and we're getting within striking distance of the hurricane season, so it's time to revisit my forecast from earlier. I'll be revising my numbers (I'm Number 19) to
  • Preliminary
  • 19 named storms
  • 12 hurricanes
  • 5 major hurricanes
  • ACE = 195
Anecdotally, there seems to be a bit of a push to not designate short-lived storms, and without as high subtropical warmth in the Atlantic there might not be as many frontal-related genesis events over the subtropics and mid-latitudes to really ratchet up the storm count. Accordingly, I've lowered my forecast for the number of named storms a bit. However, in light of the warm Atlantic, cool neutral/La Nina, and strong equatorial Atlantic warmth (an "Atlantic Nino"), we may see an elevated potential for long-track MDR storms, increasing the potential for one or more long-track major hurricanes. I've increased my major hurricane prediction by 1, and my ACE guess accordingly.



The numbers above are pretty much taken out of a magical hat, but I'd like to post some possibly informative patterns we're seeing this year, in relation to climatology. On the left is a plot of seasons based on two factors: the SST anomaly over the Canary Current (the blue box) in April and the SST anomaly over a good portion of the MDR (the orange box). I've subtracted out the long-term trend between 1980 and present to separate out any possible effects of climate change. The size of the bubbles reflects the ACE in that season. You'll notice that if you're in the upper-right quadrant and it's a La Nina year, odds are it'll be an above active season. The blue 'X' marks where 2024 could end up on the chart, according to the NMME seasonal ensemble, which effectively puts the entire MDR at +1C above the 1981-2010 average (and about +0.5C above the trendline).

Source: Created using Python. ERSST data are available via NOAA PSL and NMME data are available via CPC, but you can view forecast graphics at Tropical Tidbits
https://i.imgur.com/oQakME7.png

Here's something else. Consider the correlation between the upper-level velocity potential (where air spreads out or converges in the upper troposphere) during August/September/October and Atlantic ACE during the last 40 years:
Source: Created using Python using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 2.
https://i.imgur.com/3J5Xdlk.png

Compare this to what the CFS has forecast for ASO:
Source: TropicalTidbits
https://i.imgur.com/JUDBmoJ.png



And here's something else I did for fun. I took meteorological data from 20 random seasons between 1960 and the present, and using 6 parameters from April and May only (related to SST, heights, and winds aloft), tried to best fit a linear model to predict the ACE from just those ingredients. Basically, how well can we predict seasonal activity using only pre-season metrics? (This is actually pretty similar to what Phil and the folks at CSU do, though, they're much more rigorous and detailed and careful with their selection of predictors!) The plot on the top left shows how "important" the predictors are to the model. The model misses the mark pretty often, but shows maybe the slightest bit of utility. This isn't very vigorous, but hey, why not. The vertical blue lines mark the seasons that the model "trained" on.

Source: Created using Python. To reduce the "noise" caused by chance (e.g. one storm just happens to have a lot of ACE), the model is actually trained on climatology-based ACE, which I've talked about in this thread before.
https://i.imgur.com/zscA5ip.png

This model estimated 181 ACE for this year, which would actually be the second highest value since 1980 using that model.

Excellent work as usual!

Do you have any insights on why the "simple" model's 2010 hindcast seems significantly higher than the 2024 forecast? Both years seem to feature very similar configurations in Atlantic SSTA profile and ENSO. Is it because 2010's MDR SSTAs are higher than 2024 after accounting for global warming, or is it something else?
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

#266 Postby MGC » Wed May 08, 2024 9:08 am

I'm going with a slightly above normal Atlantic season. 17-8-3 ACE 135...................MGC
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

#267 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 08, 2024 9:23 am

MGC wrote:I'm going with a slightly above normal Atlantic season. 17-8-3 ACE 135...................MGC


Added as #83 on the list of participants.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

#268 Postby JetFuel_SE » Wed May 08, 2024 10:29 am

Update my prediction to 33/16/9, 280 ACE.
Final
2nd (or first, depending on how you see it) on the list.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

#269 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 08, 2024 10:55 am

JetFuel_SE wrote:Update my prediction to 33/16/9, 280 ACE.
Final
2nd (or first, depending on how you see it) on the list.


Done.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

#270 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 09, 2024 11:27 am

Time goes fast and we are only 21 days away for the poll to close, so those who are still thinking about the numbers, come to post them or those who already have preliminary ones, to finalize them.

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... nt=cursive
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

#271 Postby Iceresistance » Thu May 09, 2024 5:01 pm

Update: Still preliminary, remember me as #23

28/12/7 ACE up to 240
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

#272 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 09, 2024 5:40 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Update: Still preliminary, remember me as #23

28/12/7 ACE up to 240


Made the change.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

#273 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 11, 2024 1:06 pm

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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#274 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 12, 2024 5:32 am

The poll is saying, hey, I am here, don't leave me alone. :cheesy: :ggreen:
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#275 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun May 12, 2024 5:47 am

Who will be the #84 guy?? :D :D
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#276 Postby Cyclenall » Sun May 12, 2024 10:43 am

Hurricane2022 wrote:Who will be the #84 guy?? :D :D

Me!

21/10/5 ACE: 196 Prelim

I went with the same numbers as my 2022 prediction. More long tracking ACE generators so higher.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#277 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 12, 2024 11:40 am

Cyclenall wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:Who will be the #84 guy?? :D :D

Me!

21/10/5 ACE: 196 Prelim

I went with the same numbers as my 2022 prediction. More long tracking ACE generators so higher.


Added as the #84 participant.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#278 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 14, 2024 9:03 am

Only 16 days are left for the poll to close. A reminder that if any member that already has preliminary numbers at the list, when the poll closes on May 31rst at midnight EDT, will consider them as final ones.

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... nt=cursive
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#279 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 15, 2024 9:14 am

There are 35 members on the list that have preliminary numbers. If by May 31rst, there are on the list when the poll closes, those will be considered as final numbers.
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Re: RE: Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#280 Postby Woofde » Wed May 15, 2024 12:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:There are 35 members on the list that have preliminary numbers. If by May 31rst, there are on the list when the poll closes, those will be considered as final numbers.
As one of those preliminary members, I'm waiting to see exactly how SSTs evolve in the next two weeks , especially the Nino region.
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