FABIAN #43 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

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WTNT45 KNHC 070836
TCDAT5
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIAN IS NOW BEGINNING TO FEEL THE
EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND SOME SHEARING IS EVIDENT.
THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER WARM WATER BUT IS ENTRAINING SOME DRYER
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS PROBABLY THE START OF THE
TRANSITION TO THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL RANGE FROM ABOUT 80 TO 90
KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 85 KNOTS.

FABIAN IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/22. A CONTINUED GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...AS FABIAN BECOMES A FULL FLEDGED EXTRATROPICAL
STORM...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
ONE..THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST...SLOWS DOWN AND
MEANDERS AS AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE. TWO...THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO
THE NORTHEAST...SLOWS DOWN...AND THEN MOVES OFF TOWARD THE EAST.
THIS LAST SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST
WHICH WAS BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM NCEP/OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 39.7N 54.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 41.8N 51.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 46.1N 44.8W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 08/1800Z 51.2N 36.8W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 09/0600Z 55.0N 30.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 10/0600Z 56.5N 21.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/0600Z 60.0N 16.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/0600Z 62.5N 15.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL