Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Ubuntwo]

Creating this thread as the area has now been highlighted by the NHC and has sustained model support.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend over the western
Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is
possible through early next week while the system moves slowly to
the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh boy, here we go...

I have a feeling this will be quite the thread.

[HurricaneBelle]

20% because genesis is probably more likely 8-9 days away

[Ubuntwo]

20% because genesis is probably more likely 8-9 days away

To this point, the 2-week (day 8 to day 14) CPC product has >60% odds

[aspen]

Oh boy, here we go...

I have a feeling this will be quite the thread.

The big question is, like Beryl or like Francine? Because I can very easily see this taking forever to amount to anything and becoming far less notable than what a week+ of model runs suggest.

[Jr0d]

Oh boy, here we go...

I have a feeling this will be quite the thread.

The big question is, like Beryl or like Francine? Because I can very easily see this taking forever to amount to anything and becoming far less notable than what a week+ of model runs suggest.

Hopefully (edit) weaker than either but we have yet to have a major storm threaten the CONUS this season and hopefully the trend will continue.

That said if something develops, it will likely be the H name which for some reason seems an H of a lot better than the dreaded I storms.

[cycloneye]

Oh boy, here we go...

I have a feeling this will be quite the thread.

I think it will not reach 1075 posts and 54 pages that the thread for the area pre Francine had. Interesting that the pre Beryl thread only had 61 posts.

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh boy, here we go...

I have a feeling this will be quite the thread.

I think it will not reach 1075 posts and 54 pages that the thread for the area pre Francine had. Interesting that the pre Beryl thread only had 61 posts.

I think the quiet pre-Beryl thread was understandable as I don't think many people really thought that a storm like that could happen until it actually was happening (they probably thought it was going to be a minimal, run-of-the-mill June/July storm that gets ripped up by shear and dust). Francine was expected to be a long-lived, powerful Caribbean hurricane, so when development kept getting pushed back and back it got people really wondering and talking about it.

[ThunderForce]

And now my anxiety is kicking in. Looks like the same general formation area as Michael.

[StPeteMike]

The weekend should be interesting for sure. We should have a large, disorganized convection by then and the models should have an easier grasp of what will come from it.

With these CAG storms, it’s not an easy task on how a potential system detaches itself from the CAG completely. Struggling system to detach= weaker storm for the impacted area, stronger storm if it can clear out from CAG early in the stage. We should have a better knowledge on what option occurs around Monday.

I’ll also go on the limb and say this takes the dreaded “I” name. Think the open Atlantic system will get its act together before this does and take Helene.

[psyclone]

Right time, right place, upward mjo, record ocean heat content. I'm a bull on something happening here with potential for something big. I suspect interest may be limited owing to recency bias of the relative peak season bust (at least the first half)...but that peak season runs from 8-20 to 10-10...so we're early in the 3rd quarter.

[StPeteMike]

Right time, right place, upward mjo, record ocean heat content. I'm a bull on something happening here with potential for something big. I suspect interest may be limited owing to recency bias of the relative peak season bust (at least the first half)...but that peak season runs from 8-20 to 10-10...so we're early in the 3rd quarter.

For sure! Models have at least 4 potential systems forming in the next 2 weeks (including this one). We’re not over it and, as always, it just takes one to get people talking again.

Hopefully this isn’t the one.

[Woofde]

Right time, right place, upward mjo, record ocean heat content. I'm a bull on something happening here with potential for something big. I suspect interest may be limited owing to recency bias of the relative peak season bust (at least the first half)...but that peak season runs from 8-20 to 10-10...so we're early in the 3rd quarter.

It's forward speed could end up being what stops it from exploding in those conditions. 18z GFS moves it from Cuba to Florida in 30 hours. That's not much time for things to really get going.

Ensembles are rather split on this though, plenty of support for a fast weak system, but there is also a rather large amount of members showing major hurricanes. We're still far out, so this makes sense. I could see this one going either way.

[TampaWxLurker]

2 possible inhibiting factors:
1. CAG-originating storms tend to take awhile to consolidate (not always, but from my limited amateur observations) and then get going on their own.
2. Some models have shown this making a quick trip from the western Caribbean up into the eastern gulf. Less time to strengthen once consolidated would probably hold intensity back.

It'll come down to how quickly it can consolidate, and how much time it has traversing the extra hot SST's of the eastern Gulf. Slower development and a faster movement would mean a weaker storm. And a fast development and slower forward moment, a stronger one.

[Jr0d]

Had to edit my previous..hopefully whatever ever is anything is weaker than this year's earlier storm. Wrote a post in haste while on a work break.

I certainly don't want a storm to be worse than the previously named storms.

As always , until we get a legitimate area of interest, an invest, the models runs are just an educated guess. The ensembles give us a much better picture of potential outcomes this far out.

Now the NHC has a lemon makes this 'model Storm' a bit more real.

[hipshot]

2 possible inhibiting factors:
1. CAG-originating storms tend to take awhile to consolidate (not always, but from my limited amateur observations) and then get going on their own.
2. Some models have shown this making a quick trip from the western Caribbean up into the eastern gulf. Less time to strengthen once consolidated would probably hold intensity back.

It'll come down to how quickly it can consolidate, and how much time it has traversing the extra hot SST's of the eastern Gulf. Slower development and a faster movement would mean a weaker storm. And a fast development and slower forward moment, a stronger one.

What is CAG?

[FireRat]

CAG = Central American Gyre.
This potential system has the chance to be one of 2024's flagship storms. Bears watching.

[hipshot]

CAG = Central American Gyre.
This potential system has the chance to be one of 2024's flagship storms. Bears watching.

Thks, and it's pretty close to the Gulf.

[DunedinDave]

From the looks of it this could be very similar to how Idalia went. Ramped up once it got past Cuba and could go a similar path per the GFS. Long way to go, of course. But that’s the first thing that spring in my head looking at the GFS track and intensity.

[FireRat]

It's certainly early for knowing what tracks this potential future system will take, but speculating it does seem something like Idalia would be plausible.
Other possible systems (tracks, not strength) I have in mind include Ian, 1964's Isbell and even a long ago storm, the "Cuban Hurricane of 1844"... which took a track north into Havana and then up the side of the Keys, likely sideswiped Southeast FL and went NNE staying off the Southeast coast.