Good morning everyone. It's tropical update time at 11 AM EDT this Sunday morning September 7th, 2003. 3 days away from the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic and it's the most active time of the season so far, right on schedule!!!
Isabel becomes the fourth hurricane of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. There is no immediate threat to land areas. At 11 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 14.5 north, longitude 37.7 west or about 1610 miles east of the Leeward Islands.
Isabel is moving towards the west northwest at near 10 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours and Isabel could possibly become our second major hurricane of the Atlantic season in 2-3 days, I'll say that right now.
Hurricane force winds extend outward 30 miles while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center. Minimum central pressure is right at minimal hurricane criteria at 987 millibars or 29.15 inches.
Hurricane Fabian continues moving through the North Atlantic shipping lanes. At 11 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Fabian was located near latitude 41.4 north, longitude 52.2 west or about 360 kiles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Fabian is moving towards the northeast at near 25 mph and this motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are now down to 90 mph with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast over the next 24 hours as Fabian moves over cooler waters and becomes an extratropical entity. Minimum central pressure is 967 mb or 28.56 inches. Large swells continues to affect the coastal areas of the eastern United States. Updates can be seen on marine forecasts and special weather statements from the national weather service.
Henri is still a tropical depression at 11 AM. At 11 AM EDT, the center of TD Henri was located near latitude 31.2 north, longitude 78.1 west or about 145 miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.
The depression is moving towards the northeast at near 9 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph with higher gusts. Henri could regain tropical storm strength later on today. A hurricane hunter plane will investigate this later this afternoon. Minimum central pressure is 1006 mb or 29.71 inches.
In addition to the direct impact from Henri off the southeast us coast, there is also an indirect effect courtesy of strong canadian high pressure northwest of Henri. In between the strong high and henri will be a pressure gradient wind coming from the northeast over the next few days. That strong northeast wind could gust above gale force or above 39 mph over the next 24-48 hours from the South Carolina coast northward to Virginias coastal waters. The potential exists for high waves, dangerous rip currents, heavy showers, beach erosion, and potential for minor tidal flooding or overwash at times of high tide through midweek along the southern Mid Atlantic coast!!! Definitely be on the lookout surfers and swimmers for the rip current potential this week.
Also keep an eye on the east atlantic east of Isabel. Could Juan be forming?? Stay tuned!!!
Jim
Isabel, Fabian, Henri...Could Juan be forming??? Busy times
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