FABIAN #44 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

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WTNT45 KNHC 071442
TCDAT5
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003

A SLOW WEAKENING IS CONTINUING WITH FABIAN...WITH LESS INTENSE
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ELONGATED
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
SLOWLY DROPPING...SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT. FABIAN IS
CROSSING THE 25C ISOTHERM AND SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IN
12 HOURS...FAVORING FURTHER WEAKENING. TYPICALLY THE WEAKENING
WOULD BE MORE DRAMATIC OVER THE SUB 15C WATERS BUT A TRANSITION
INTO A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST WITH NEAR
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GFS MODEL AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.

THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY... 050/22 KT... BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS FABIAN IS
PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE SEEN TO ITS WEST IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGES. THE SHORTWAVE AND THE CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO MERGE WITH AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW AHEAD OF A HUGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST BY
THE GFS NEAR GREENLAND. THE REMNANTS OF FABIAN ARE LIKELY TO BE A
STRONG STORM/GALE CENTER OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 41.4N 52.2W 80 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 44.0N 48.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 48.5N 41.5W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 09/0000Z 53.0N 34.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 09/1200Z 58.0N 30.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 10/1200Z 61.0N 39.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/1200Z 58.0N 39.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/1200Z 57.0N 35.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL