HENRI #16 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 071434
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT HENRI HAS A RATHER BROAD...NOT
PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED...LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE
ARE BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SYSTEM...ENOUGH BANDING TO SUPPORT CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. HOWEVER THERE ARE NO SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR
AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE IN A FEW HOURS TO MAKE A MORE PRECISE
DETERMINATION OF THE CYCLONE'S STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ALLOWS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BUT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO STRONG SHEAR.

INITIAL MOTION...050/8...IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND JUST A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. HENRI IS EMBEDDED IN MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT IN THE
WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENING
WITH TIME...PARTICULARLY BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST SLOWS HENRI DOWN BY THAT TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 31.2N 78.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 32.0N 77.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 33.2N 75.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 34.1N 74.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 34.8N 72.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 35.0N 70.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 35.0N 69.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 35.0N 68.0W 25 KT