Will Isabel be first cane E of 40W that hits US since Donna?

[LarryWx]

A) Donna of 1960 is the most recent storm that is on record as having first become a hurricane east of 40W and south of 20N that subsequently hit the U.S. Will Isabel be the first in 43 years?

B) I counted 37 storms for the period 1851-2002 that are on record as first becoming a hurricane east of 40W (and south of 20N) and only 4 of these (~11% or 1 in 9 chance) later hit the U.S. So, this tells me that a number of things likely have to be just right to get a cane from east of 40W all the way over to the U.S. being that ~89% of the time they didn't make it. Will Isabel join the 11% group?

C) All four of those that first became hurricanes on record east of 40W and also later hit the U.S. were MAJOR hurricanes when they hit and they initially hit FL, GA, or SC:
-1960: Donna (on record became a hurricane record at 39.4W; hit FL and then went up the entire eastern seaboard)
-1947: Storm #4 (on record became hurricane at 24W, the farthest east on record since 1851 of any that later hit the U.S.; hit FL and later LA)
-1893: Storm #6 (on record became hurricane at 35.4W; hit near GA/SC border)
-1893: Storm #9 (on record became hurricane at 29.8W; hit SC)

D) So, to summarize based on the last 152 years, the chances of any one C.V. storm that first becomes a hurricane before reaching 40W subsequently hitting the U.S. are pretty slim (about 1 in 9), but those that do will likely be majors since all four that hit since 1851 were majors when they hit. It has been 43 years since the last one hit (Donna of 1960).

E) Based on the above, I predict that ***IF*** Isabel does indeed beat the pretty steep odds and hit the U.S., it will hit as either a cat. 3 or cat. 4 and initially hit FL, GA, or SC before possibly significantly impacting other states.

[Stormsfury]

Excellent post, LarryWx, and welcome to Storm2k ...

The stats of the ones that have defied odds are downright scary. Especially TWO 1893 CV storms which both impacted South Carolina, and one of them (Storm #6)- the Sea Islands Hurricane -

SF

[cycloneye]

Welcome Larry to storm2k and your posts about records from past seasons are going to be very helpful and instructive to all the members.

[Lindaloo]

Welcome to storm2k. WOW!! What an excellent post your first time out. Great information.

[Andrew92]

Great post Larry! Glad to see you made it from GoPBI!

I'm wondering about Isabel right now. I'd be watching this if I was living on the coast for sure...I get chilling vibes off of this one.

-Andrew92

[ameriwx2003]

Larrywx.. outstanding post.Great info:):) Thanks

[LarryWx]

Thanks all for the nice words and nice welcome.
Larry

[rainstorm]

thanks

[Stormsfury]

Hurricane Hugo, FWIW, was very close. It reached hurricane status as analyzed on best track at 12.8ºN, 43.5ºW.

SF

[JetMaxx]

Hi Larry!!....welcome to Storm2K!!!

This hurricane is IMO a very good candidate to become the fifth hurricane to form east of 40° W and strike the U.S. as a major hurricane.....especially if it becomes as intense as I'm expecting (category 5) and the outflow reinforces the subtropical ridge to it's north.

Again, welcome to Storm2K!!

PW

[LarryWx]

Rainstorm,
You're welcome.

Perry,
Thanks and good to see you. It's been a while.

Stormsfury,
I purposely wanted to do a statistic for storms that first became hurricanes in the 30's W or further east before doing the calculations in order to have what I consider an objective statistic. So, whereas Hugo is kind of close with its 43.5, it still doesn't count for my statistic. For that matter, Georges of 1998 became one right at 40W if you want to talk close. But again, 40W isn't EAST of 40W.

Fortunately, I already had calculated a separate statistic a few weeks ago on those that first became hurricanes within the 40-49.9W interval only:

12 out of 38 (32% or about 1 in 3) of those that are on record as first becoming a hurricane between 40 and 49.9W (and south of 20N) during the period 1851-2002 later hit the U.S. This implies that the chances of a hit on the U.S. rise markedly if they wait until the longitude of 40-49.9W to first become a hurricane as opposed to doing so before 40W, where the chance is only near 10%. The chance more than triples.

The point is that, as I assume you know, the chances for a U.S. hit generally rise substantially for storms that first become hurricanes further west than the east of 40W interval.
Later, Larry

[ColdFront77]

Welcome to Storm2K, Larry. I am glad you joined us for great, friendly and usually understanding discussion about the tropics, other weather related issues and off-topic issues.

Interesting information for us, indeed. I appreciate it.

[LarryWx]

ColdFront, thanks.

[LarryWx]

I had a typo. I had said: "10 out of 38 (32% or about 1 in 3) of those that are on record as first becoming a hurricane between 40 and 49.9W (and south of 20N) during the period 1851-2002 later hit the U.S."

It should have said "12 out of 38 (32% or about 1 in 3)..."

I corrected it. Sorry about the careless error.

[weatherluvr]

Thanx Larry. I'm big into stats and historical info too. Hope we can share some knowledge back and forth.

[LarryWx]

Weatherluvr, I always thought both weather and statistics were cool. Combine them and I'm a happy camper. (well as long as the stats are presented as OBJECTIVELY as possible...i.e. without an attempt to skew the results).

[LarryWx]

I have just edited my first post in this thread due to an error I just noticed. I had originally said:

"B) I counted 39 storms for the period 1851-2002 that are on record as first becoming a hurricane east of 40W (and south of 20N) and only 4 of these (~10% or 1 in 10 chance) later hit the U.S. So, this tells me that a number of things likely have to be just right to get a cane from east of 40W all the way over to the U.S. being that ~90% of the time they didn't make it. Will Isabel join the 10% group?"

I have changed this to the following:

"B) I counted 37 storms for the period 1851-2002 that are on
record as first becoming a hurricane east of 40W (and south of 20N) and only 4 of these (~11% or 1 in 9 chance) later hit the U.S. So, this tells me that a number of things likely have to be just right to get a cane from east of 40W all the way over to the U.S. being that ~89% of the time they didn't make it. Will Isabel join the 11% group?"

The reason is that I noticed that two of the hurricanes that I had previously counted actually became HURRICANES NORTH of 20N even though they had become TROPICAL STORMS SOUTH of 20N:
Bonnie of 1980 and Lisa of 1998. So, I feel I have to throw these two out since I'm now talking about those which first became hurricanes BOTH east of 40W AND south of 20N.

This correction doesn't really change my overall thinking as the % chance of a U.S. hit rises only to 11% from my previously reported 10%. Nevertheless, I've raised the chance based purely on climo from 1 out of 10 to 1 out of 9.

[AussieMark]

The scary thing as well for is that Donna passed north of Puerto Rico and headed on a due west path and hit the Keys and moved northeast and struck Tampa Bay area and consequently the midAtlantic-New England imagine if the same thing were to happen today. What would the damage be like especially if was Category 4 like donna was.

[AussieMark]

Every year for the past few years there has been one hurricane that has done something out of the ordinary that no one was expecting

2002 - Lili significantly weakening from a Category 4 to a Category 1/2 just hour prior to landfall.

2001 - Allison causing a lot of damage that nobody expected a tropical storm to do.

2000 - Keith significantly strengthened and weakened off the coast of Belize in about 48 hours.

1999 - The east-northeast track of Lenny through the Caribbean

1998 - Mitch intensifing into a 180 mph category 5 on October 26.