Estimated Damage Potential of a Tropical Cyclone (chart)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Chris_in_Tampa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5078
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
Contact:

Estimated Damage Potential of a Tropical Cyclone (chart)

#1 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Aug 10, 2025 2:36 pm

Don't know where best to put this, so I'll put it here. I was reading Jeff Masters / Bob Henson's blog several days ago and saw they linked to this:
https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tc-potential

It has a really interesting chart of the estimated damage potential of a storm. It's only an estimate. It could potentially be much higher.

I tried writing a paragraph to describe it:

"This hurricane damage potential statistic does not take into account such things as a current storm's size, the amount of infrastructure that may be in a storm's path or the vulnerability of an area to storm surge. (as well as whether there is a greater or lesser risk of tornadoes and/or inland flooding from rainfall) This estimated statistic applies to what the approximate damage potential of a storm of this intensity could be at landfall based on the normalized damages from previous hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. mainland. If a storm is smaller than average, impacts a less populated area, and/or impacts an area less vulnerable to storm surge, the damage potential could be less. Conversely, if a storm is larger than average, impacts a more populated area, and/or impacts an area more vulnerable to storm surge, the damage potential could be much higher."

Graphically:
Image

I was working on animating the graphical chart but it has some issues. This was the best version so far:
https://imgur.com/jZ06u5P
5 likes   

User avatar
Spacecoast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 764
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:03 pm

Re: Estimated Damage Potential of a Tropical Cyclone (chart)

#2 Postby Spacecoast » Sun Aug 10, 2025 3:09 pm

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:Don't know where best to put this, so I'll put it here. I was reading Jeff Masters / Bob Henson's blog several days ago and saw they linked to this:
https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tc-potential


I've always wondered.. are these wind speeds (Saffir-Simpson) measured at 10m (AGL)?
1 likes   

Chris_in_Tampa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5078
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
Contact:

Re: Estimated Damage Potential of a Tropical Cyclone (chart)

#3 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Aug 10, 2025 4:15 pm

Spacecoast wrote:
Chris_in_Tampa wrote:Don't know where best to put this, so I'll put it here. I was reading Jeff Masters / Bob Henson's blog several days ago and saw they linked to this:
https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tc-potential


I've always wondered.. are these wind speeds (Saffir-Simpson) measured at 10m (AGL)?


That damage potential table was based upon these two papers apparently:
https://www.nber.org/papers/w12813
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/Normalized ... ne2008.pdf

I couldn't really figure out the equations. They didn't have the table in the papers. I guess someone at NOAA might have derived it perhaps. Not sure. But it seemed to be based on best track data from prior hurricanes. That is supposed to be estimated at a standard height of 10m. Best track data is based on what they think the storm was based on all available information. It would be unlikely to have actually measured the highest sustained wind directly. They used landfalling mainland U.S. hurricane data and then how much damage the hurricane cost. There are some equations there that I guess were used to create that table.
1 likes   

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4163
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Estimated Damage Potential of a Tropical Cyclone (chart)

#4 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Aug 10, 2025 7:18 pm

And then you look at an EF5 tornado's level of destruction (like 1999's Bridgecreek-Moore or 2011's Joplin) and realize how utterly apocalyptic 200+ mph winds can be.
1 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5520
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: Estimated Damage Potential of a Tropical Cyclone (chart)

#5 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 12, 2025 1:54 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:And then you look at an EF5 tornado's level of destruction (like 1999's Bridgecreek-Moore or 2011's Joplin) and realize how utterly apocalyptic 200+ mph winds can be.


Of course in addition to the apocalyptic damage as a result of higher wind, then factor in the further impact caused by the relative severe change in angular motion of the wind within a tornado as well.
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

Chris_in_Tampa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5078
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
Contact:

Re: Estimated Damage Potential of a Tropical Cyclone (chart)

#6 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Aug 16, 2025 1:24 pm

I still have more to do, but an early version of the damage potential chart is now here:
https://hurricanecity.com/models/models ... _potential

I still want to add ability to remove the text labels on the chart bars, change the maximum x-axis value on the chart, change the width and height of the chart and add ability to save the chart. I don't know when I'll get to those.

Edit: Changing the maximum x-axis value is now possible.
Last edited by Chris_in_Tampa on Sun Aug 17, 2025 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Jr0d
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1437
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 am
Location: Cayo Hueso

Re: Estimated Damage Potential of a Tropical Cyclone (chart)

#7 Postby Jr0d » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:41 pm

chaser1 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:And then you look at an EF5 tornado's level of destruction (like 1999's Bridgecreek-Moore or 2011's Joplin) and realize how utterly apocalyptic 200+ mph winds can be.


Of course in addition to the apocalyptic damage as a result of higher wind, then factor in the further impact caused by the relative severe change in angular motion of the wind within a tornado as well.


On top of microbursts and tornadoes within the eyewall that can cause insane gusts
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: RomP and 59 guests