I have a personal bad feeling!

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The_Cycloman_PR
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I have a personal bad feeling!

#1 Postby The_Cycloman_PR » Sun Sep 07, 2003 4:53 pm

As you and NHC are saying, the models force hurricane Isabel to move westward after 48 hours and place the hurricane just north of us and the northern antilles. Yes that sound not to bad for us as Isabel could just brush us passing over 75 milles to the north if it move wnw enough to reach the 19.5N before resuming the westward track. NHC's models put the eye of Isabel over 19.5N and 60.0W, that position put us in a lucky stage as the hurricane would not has a direct impact over the Islands.

However...and that's what concern me...If the ridge get's stronger and force Isabel to move westward, then which influence will it have over Juan that I am sure this future TD#14 will be TS juan very soon. The scenario I think is that when Isabel is passing just north of the Islands and PR, it will be pulling Juan that will be on a lower latitude and also moving westward due to the ridge into the north of it. Isabel could pass north of us and then 3 or 4 days later Juan could cross the Lesser Antilles over a lower latitude, let say 15 to 16N meaning strong danger to us...


I am not so afraid of Isabel, Juan is the one of my concern.


Any coments from the experts? :D :D


Cycloman
Last edited by The_Cycloman_PR on Sun Sep 07, 2003 4:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 07, 2003 4:58 pm

That sounds like a true scenario that may occur and has to be watched as the days progress.
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#3 Postby Guest » Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:06 pm

Latest path by NHC had it coming straight over the islands. No hint of notherly drift in this storm. Islands be alert and prepared.
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ColdFront77

#4 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:56 pm

Interesting, there has been discussions that the ridge that will keep Isabel on a general westward track may cause Juan to move northerly and perhaps out to sea.

The Fujiwhara Effect MAY take place with Isabel and possible Juan.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Sun Sep 07, 2003 11:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Renata
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Hi ticka ... missed this one

#5 Postby Renata » Sun Sep 07, 2003 6:03 pm

ticka1 wrote:Latest path by NHC had it coming straight over the islands. No hint of notherly drift in this storm. Islands be alert and prepared.


What is the URL to this latest run of which you speak? I believed that I missed it.
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Lindaloo
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#6 Postby Lindaloo » Sun Sep 07, 2003 7:36 pm

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm
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