"No Landfall!," says the historical map

[wow]

Past storms with similar charactistics of Isabel...

...all recurved.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I thought Hugo had a similiar path to Isabel??

[wow]

Hugo comes in close. It was within 200 miles south of the current position of Isabel, however it did not reach hurricane status until 43W.

[cycloneye]

Now the question is if Isabel will break that historical recurve thrend.

[Stormsfury]

Hugo developed into a hurricane precisely at 12.8ºN, 43.5ºW

[WeatherEmperor]

If only I could say the same about a particular hurricane named Andrew...

[ColdFront77]

Past storms with similar charactistics of Isabel...

...all recurved.

Now the question is if Isabel will break that historical recurve thrend.

I agree, Luis. Hurricane Isabel could be added to the 10% of storms, over the years, that have not recurved. The timing of the building ridge is very important.

[GalvestonDuck]

"Similar characteristics?"

Actually, the only thing similar is that they were Cat 1's or 2's, within 200 miles of Isabel, and during the month of September. If you look at some that developed into 1's or 2's past those 200 miles, it might be a whole different story. And it all depends upon the climatology surrounding them. Unless that was similar, I wouldn't depend on the historical map.