Early Thoughts About the 2026 Atlantic Season

[Category5Kaiju]

With nothing alarming or noteworthy appearing on long-range models, it looks like the 2025 Atlantic season may be very close to, if not already, wrapping up. An unusually bipolar season, featuring either very weak tropical storms or Category 4+ major hurricanes, most of which recurved from land thanks to a very persistent troughing pattern that came into place as early as August. And then, turning vicious in late October when the record-breaking and catastrophic Melissa occurred, likely becoming the season's "flag-bearer" storm.

I presume the annual seasonal indicators thread will likely be up by late December/early January, but if anybody wants to start thinking/discussing what 2026 may hold, here's the space!

[LarryWx]

With nothing alarming or noteworthy appearing on long-range models, it looks like the 2025 Atlantic season may be very close to, if not already, wrapping up. An unusually bipolar season, featuring either very weak tropical storms or Category 4+ major hurricanes, most of which recurved from land thanks to a very persistent troughing pattern that came into place as early as August. And then, turning vicious in late October when the record-breaking and catastrophic Melissa occurred, likely becoming the season's "flag-bearer" storm.

I presume the annual seasonal indicators thread will likely be up by late December/early January, but if anybody wants to start thinking/discussing what 2026 may hold, here's the space!

Per pro mets such as Eric Webb and Paul Roundy as well as the Euro model, El Niño may makes its return in 2026, possibly early. However, whereas I’m not saying that won’t happen (it’s very early to predict this), I advise caution on taking the Euro at face value due to a longtime warm bias in Nino 3.4. I’d like to wait a couple more months to get a better feel.

[Hurricane2022]

My very earrrly thoughts about 2026 is that it could be a similar season to 2023. Extremely Long-Range CANSIPS depicts incredibly warm anomalies at JAS with an visible El Niño in the Pacific. I would not be surprised to see another moderately-active season, but with much less impacts to land, just like 2023.

[weeniepatrol]

My very earrrly thoughts about 2026 is that it could be a similar season to 2023. Extremely Long-Range CANSIPS depicts incredibly warm anomalies at JAS with an visible El Niño in the Pacific. I would not be surprised to see another moderately-active season, but with much less impacts to land, just like 2023.

I agree. Multiple signs exist that suggest chances for El Niño in ‘26 are elevated. The extremely strong -IOD, ongoing westerlies over the Maritime Continent, typical La Niña buildup of WPAC heat and thermocline fuel, current climate model guidance, etc. it’s still very early, so this is subject to change.

I am very interested in such a scenario, however. After the 2023 season AND 2018 season with El Niños of different flavors and magnitudes still yielding above average Atlantic hurricane seasons, I want to see how the basin fares during more El Niño events.

[Woofde]

The +AMO and -PDO of the last 10 years have proven to be insurmountable to any subseasonal factors. Until those go I doubt we will see a traditionally below average season.