Isabel Discussion

[weatherlover427]

HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003

ISABEL CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS IMPRESSIVE COLD
CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE 35 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 90 KT FROM AFWA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13. ISABEL IS MOVING IN THIS
DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ISABEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH THE
SYSTEM ENDING UP JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
DAY FIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE SHIPS MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE INTENSIFICATION OF ISABEL
VERY WELL SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 16.1N 40.2W 80 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 16.8N 42.0W 85 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 17.7N 44.4W 90 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 18.5N 46.9W 95 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 19.2N 49.3W 100 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 19.7N 53.2W 100 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 20.2N 56.7W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 20.5N 60.0W 100 KT

[cycloneye]

This latest track is more to the north 20.5n rather than 19.5n that the previous advisory had and that is good news for the northern islands butstill we have to watch it because of the intense system that it is going to be and it well may at some point moving WSW as some models haved pointed out.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

20.5N,60.0W is better than the 19.5N, 60.0W early anticipated. A little far north than previous forecast positions. Should we feel relief??

[Stormsfury]

IMHO, no ...

Since the average 5 day track error is so large ... either side of the that cone or window ... and as cycloneye stated, the models at some point actually indicate a possible WSW motion for a time ...

SF