Right now, kind of the same ideas as I have had through the day. Northwestward movement continues; this won't last long as the trough west of the central part of the ridge overcomes it and Isabel goes west.
For Derek's forecast, I'm not going to criticize anyone since this is becoming difficult, but I want to use it as an example, since it's on here and available. First of all, that's a mighty strong ridge in that forecast I imagine with the hurricane going that fast--point in mind is I don't see that ridge spontaneously becoming Super Ridge like it was before. Also, will Isabel get that far north?---that's more objective. As for that southwestward movement in the NHC forecast, and Mike's forecast; it seems reasonable; however, I once again think that this is giving too much power to the ridge. So I kind of fall in the middle in thinking. Also, I think we are all just kind of throwing out the shear to the northwest of Isabel---should keep that in mind, but as the trough dies out, so will the shear. This will be very close for the Antilles, but at least, the center would pass north of the islands, so maybe effects would not be as bad---but that's pinpoint precision needed out 6 days...oh well.
Just something to think about in our sleep tonight.
Good night all, and I'll "see" you in the morning if you're here
