06Z GFS - Isabel Over S. Florida at 240hrs

[wxman57]

Well, the newest GFS run is interesting, taking Isabel right into Miami at 18Z on the 18th of September. But I'm not ready to buy that. Remember that the GFS had Fabian hitting the same area 10 days out. Isabel could go anywhere from S. Florida to Bermuda. But let's see if it continues to show a S. Florida hit for 2-3 days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_252m.gif

[cycloneye]

Yes agree 57 more runs are needed to see a trend and also to see if the other globals are in agreement.

[ameriwx2003]

WXMAN57.. yes, and your correct lets see if the GFS can have some consistent model runs. The 00Z GFS had it get picked up and come up to the Canadian Martimes:):).

[Steve H.]

Agree wxman, but also remember that the GFS run for Fabian had him getting to Florida but turning up the coast. This run looks like it wants to take him across the state, meaning the GFS is expecting the ridge to build WWD. That being said tomorrow it will show it in the Carolinas, but you're right, let's see what the next few days runs' show. The idea that it probably will not get under the building ridge for another day (at least the eastern part of the ridge is disturbing though. It NW component during the past day is deceiving, since when it gets under the strong influence of the ridge its doing so further west, and could run the ridge another 35 - 40 degrees westward. I believe the models allow the influence of Henri on the ridge to hold on much longer than reality, which kind of reduces the impact of the high on the eastreme SE US. However, as Henri departs it builds high pressure underneath it, allowing Imsabel to stay westward. Mostly I'm referring to the UKMET, which shows isabel following Henri. Don't think that will happen at all, and Henri should be long gone by then. The UKMET shows Isabel following Henri right out to sea. Think high pressure will have regained control of the SW Atlantic by the time she comes in, since she will move a bit slower at this point. We'll see. Monday - Monday Folks! Cheers!!

[Steve H.]

Let me correct that statement. After looking at the 06Z GFS loop, its similar to Fabian in the fact that it has it going up the west coast of FLorida after staying just north of Cuba, then has it in Tampa Bay then up through Panama City into Georgia thereafter I say similar, but its at a lower latitude, coming due west across the last 30 degrees!! Watch it swing back and forth a during the week!!