A bit more encouraged this morning

[Derek Ortt]

With a couple of the model runs. NOGAPS is complete nonsense as this will not be a weak, broad area of low-pressure.

Also, there may be a more northward component later on, especially if Henri holds together as the UKMET is suggesting due to the western part of the ridge being eroded. I am much less concerned about a sfla landfall than I previously was last evening

[rainstorm]

yea, isabel is already far north

[Steve H.]

Isabel's position in the scheme of things doesn't mean anything. The ridge will take her due west over time. The UKMET is overplaying the influence of Henri, and the ridge will build back underneath him as he departs. UKMET too fast with Isabel and too slow with Henri. IMHO...he hee.

[wxman57]

The 06Z GFS takes Isabel right over you, Derek. But I think that may mean you're safe.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_252m.gif

[ColdFront77]

There have been model runs that show a landfall at a particular location, then the following model runs indicate other landfalls and then can easily to back to the "original" landfalling vinicity.

[PTrackerLA]

I think it's well too early to say that someone is safe from Isabel. That GFS run worries me because it looks like Isabel could get in the gulf and we REALLY don't need a storm like that in the gulf!

[rob8303]

So, DEREK, CONUS is in the clear except for a new england landfall but a storm will only be max cat 1 or 2 by that point anyway so it doesn't really count.
CONUS IN THE CLEAR? YES?

[hurricanedude]

Rob how in the heck you get that the CONUS is safe from Dereks post??? In no way is he saying that!!

[Stephanie]

There have been model runs that show a landfall at a particular location, then the following model runs indicate other landfalls and then can easily to back to the "original" landfalling vinicity.

You're right Tom or there's the case with Fabian, where the models slowly had him turning towards Bermuda after the initial forecasts had him hitting the Carolinas. It's about two weeks away and ANYTHING is possible still!

[Dean4Storms]

Although Isabel has tracked a little further north to this point it is expected to get turned more to the west and maybe even a little wsw at times. I don't put a whole lot in the GFS latest run or the UKMET. There is no way that Henri creates this large enough weakness for a long sustained time. The Atlantic High should ridge westward under whatever is there as far as Henri is concerned to the CONUS ridge exiting off the NE coast come late week. This early turn looks impossible at this point.