My computer crashed completely last night at around 11:00PM...I was too tired to bring the old one up so I've been in the dark until about 5 mins ago.
Looks like the northward move has halted for now but even if it continues...the GFS and related track models have made no bones about the fact that Isabel will come up to 20N or just south of there and ride that parellel for a long time.
Looking at last nights euro and the most recent GFS guidance there will be at least a 588DM ridge to the north of Isabel for a long time (the euro had a 591DM ridge last night...even stronger)...but that ridge is getting stronger/more distinct as the GFS runs progress.
And the "wave" behind Isabel probably has been a tropical storm for 48 hours now.
MW
Computer Crash, In the Dark Isabel Thoughts
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