HENRi #19 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 080827
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY...INFRARED AND MICROWAVE...SHOWS THAT HENRI IS
LOSING THE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND MAY BE TRANSFORMING INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE LESS SAID...THE BETTER...ABOUT
DIAGNOSING THE PHASE OR ENERGETICS OF A CYCLONE. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
30 KNOTS INCREASING SOON TO 40 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM 1-MIN WIND SPEED
IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS.

THE 00Z GFS RUN SHOWS HENRI TO BE A SHALLOW LOW TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH
OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE FORECAST SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS BASED ON THE GFS FORECAST OF INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 055/07. IT IS ASSUMED
THAT THE CENTER WAS JUST WEST OF DATA BUOY 41002 AT 06Z SINCE THE
WIND SHIFTED FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 06Z. THE CIRCULATION MAY BE
STRETCHED OR ELONGATED...AS SUGGESTED BY A 23Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER
24 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 32.5N 75.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 33.3N 74.9W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 09/0600Z 33.8N 74.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 09/1800Z 34.3N 73.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 10/0600Z 34.8N 72.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/0600Z 35.0N 71.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/0600Z 35.0N 70.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0600Z 35.0N 70.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL