Isabel as a US Threat?....

Josephine96 · #1 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:04 am

Well, I'm just a poster, not a met or anything but in my humble opinion I have this feeling Isabel is gonna be somebody's problem.

I know some of you are gonna get smart alecy and say I always have this feeling lol... but this 1 worries me a lot more than Fabian did..

1. I haven't heard anything about a trough or anything like that that could pull it away.

2. It's bookin towards the Islands even if it's only forecast to scrape them if not touch them at all..

3. Our time here in Florida regarding the "big one" is running out and Central or North Florida is way overdue.. {not the Panhandle.. because of Opal or South Florida because of Andrew}

4. Even the local mets have been just a tad bit ancy when they describe her.

It's gonna be very interesting these next days, week or so.. If Isabel is in the Bahamian Island chain and hasn't turned yet, it'll be time to hunker down in my opinion

jvance75 · #2 Postby **jvance75** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:08 am

Maybe something that we should watch.....

<IMG SRC="http://www.wrel.com/wx/model1303.jpg">

Josephine96 · #3 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:11 am

That's the model that creeps me out the most.. cause I can't picture a Cat 4 or even a Cat 3 slamming into the Tampa Bay area.. It would be mass chaos

AussieMark · #4 Postby **AussieMark** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:11 am

It is to early to tell but the best method is to prepare as if it is coming that way people won't panic as much if it has some last minute surprises.

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:14 am

I always try to remember the theory that CV storms are long trackers and long trackers that hit the U.S. are the exception not the rule.
But I am starting to think that maybe Isabel is the exception. Time tells all.

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:17 am

Don't like that one model one bit!!! :o

Josephine96 · #7 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:20 am

Isabel looks very impressive... plus she's gonna be on my tracking chart as of the 11 am advisory so it will be time for me to start keeping a close eye on her..

#8 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:20 am

ewwwwwwww...that would effect several states.

Josephine96 · #9 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:24 am

Yes it would... Isabel would probably get retired if that happens...

I'll be keeping a very close eye on her...

wrkh99 · #10 Postby **wrkh99** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:27 am

one model has it hiting Florida

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

#11 Postby **Ground_Zero_92** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:27 am

We're a long way from a potential CONUS landfall scenario. I mean, it's not even forecast to be at 60W until Saturday morning.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 0953W5.gif

I do agree that based on the models, Isabel will be a bigger concern then Fabian was. Hopefully, she will not pan out a destructive scenario for the islands or the CONUS.

There is lot's of time to watch Isabel. We'll have a better idea of whether she means business or not by the end of this week.

Josephine96 · #12 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:29 am

Oh the joys of September lol

Rainband · #13 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:33 am

wrkh99 wrote:one model has it hiting Florida

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Yes and the good thing is the GFS model accuracy is very poor at long range forecasts!!! :wink:

weathergymnast · #14 Postby **weathergymnast** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:35 am

But the ECMWF also has it as a florida threat. That make 2 models.

Josephine96 · #15 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:38 am

slowly the odds appear to be setting up more and more for a Florida hit... of course it is way too early to tell...

Rainband · #16 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:38 am

weathergymnast wrote:But the ECMWF also has it as a florida threat. That make 2 models.

Does it do a west coast parallel?? Thats all I am worried about..that would be a disaster..IF that occured :o

Josephine96 · #17 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:40 am

You're right that would be a disaster.. especially for the Tampa Bay area.. Nightmare on the Sunshine Skyway

Anonymous · #18 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:42 am

I am just hoping this thing doesn't try to get into the GOM.

Rainband · #19 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:43 am

Josephine96 wrote:You're right that would be a disaster.. especially for the Tampa Bay area.. Nightmare on the Sunshine Skyway

yep worse case scenario..doubt that it will happen :roll:

..will wait and see what the trends are before even getting a little concerned :wink:

This storm is days away from any land and we all know how models and forecasts change!!

weathergymnast · #20 Postby **weathergymnast** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:48 am

I don't know about the west coast parrallel on the ECMWF. Don't know if it extends far enough out.. All I know is that it had it headed for Central Florida.

Isabel as a US Threat?....

Isabel as a US Threat?....

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