FABIAN #48 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 081425
TCDAT5
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION BELOW -50C
NEAR THE CENTER OF FABIAN. IN ADDITION COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS
APPEAR TO HAVE INFILTRATED THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE...
THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS IS IN FULL-SWING OVER WATERS
NEAR 15C. THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT DUE TO A LATE-ARRIVING
BUOY REPORT OF 70 KT AT 0700 UTC. FABIAN SHOULD REMAIN AS A LARGE
AND INTENSE SYSTEM FOR A FEW DAYS AS GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW BELOW 960 MB NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
GREENLAND IN A DAY OR TWO. LATE IN THE PERIOD...EXTRATROPICAL
FABIAN SHOULD MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE
EAST COAST OF GREENLAND.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON LONG-LIVED HURRICANE FABIAN. FUTURE
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1
AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 49.8N 39.2W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 09/0000Z 53.7N 34.6W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 09/1200Z 58.0N 32.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 10/0000Z 59.7N 35.2W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 10/1200Z 58.7N 38.4W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/1200Z 57.0N 41.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/1200Z...ABSORBED