HPC Snippet - Mammoth Ridge

[Steve H.]

Read the whole dicussion, but here's just the tropics slice

HPC discussion:

...TROPICS...
MOST MODEL TRACKS ARE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH THE FUTURE OF
HURRICANE ISABEL... PROGRESSING THE INTENSE HURRICANE WWD UNDER
THE MAMMOTH MID-LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD OR N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
BY DAY 5 AND JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND TOWARD THE SERN BAHAMAS DAY
7. SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE ON HURRICANE
ISABEL. :?

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Last images show the eye closing to 18N...Hmmmmm! Are you sure Isabel could get that close to us?

[Vortex]

to 19n or even 19.5 before the due west turn. The concern is that Nogaps and Gfs have been consistently advertising a s of due west motion in a few days. Therein is the concern for the islands.

[Dean4Storms]

That pic says it all, you are beginning to see the toll on the Northern half of Isabel's convection as it comes against the ridge. Notice the greatest amount of convection on the southern periphery, this is a good indicator of a coming west turn.

[JetMaxx]

Cycloman, it won't surprise me to see Isabel moving south of due west for awhile as it passes between 50-60 W south of that ridge.

This hurricane reminds me a lot of Luis in 1995-- except I'm far more concerned about the Bahamas and Florida than I was then.

[jfaul]

NO..18, 19 20 whatever its heading west for at least 5 days..case closed..

...TROPICS...
MOST MODEL TRACKS ARE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH THE FUTURE OF
HURRICANE ISABEL... PROGRESSING THE INTENSE HURRICANE WWD UNDER
THE MAMMOTH MID-LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD OR N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
BY DAY 5 AND JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND TOWARD THE SERN BAHAMAS DAY
7. SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE ON HURRICANE
ISABEL.

[JCT777]

Yikes! I hope that the islands are not dealing with a category 4 hurricane by the end of the week.

[Rainband]

If this trend continues..Florida may need to watch this one closely :o