Still No Magic Trough...Troubling Week Ahead

[MWatkins]

I...like some others here and elsewhere...continue to be concerned about the future track of Isabel. Sure it's coming to the north and is now at 17.6...but that is still more or less right in the middle of the guidance envelope and right on the NHC/TPC forecast track. The fact is there is no trough or weakness in the ridge that will turn Isabel and if you look at the latest vapor loops...the ridge is growing.

Check out this loop:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

The upper low near 32/45 or so has an upper trough extending to a small upper low near 23/55W. The upper low way up there is probably the reason that Isabel has made some northern progress...but note that upper low is pulling out to the NE. The southern little low is already trapped under the ridge and is retrograding westward in front of Isabel. The ridge has teeth...and since Isabel is now more or less at the same longitude as the Upper low to the north...the northward progress will begin to lessen as they continue to move away from each other. From there Isabel catches the high and follows the upper low to the west for a long time...with both features riding along the base of what will become a MONSTER ridge.

Now...quite honestly...it's a watch and wait situation for folks in the islands and points west. Folks in the South Florida and maybe the Central Florida area can more or less count on this being the lead news story for days to come.

PS I'm hoping to have my backup computer up and running in time to get an Isabel forecast out on time tonight.

MW

[JCT777]

Good update and agreed regarding the track of Isabel. She certainly does not look to be recurving any time soon!

[Rainband]

Thanks for the update MW..I think..things are becoming interesting to say the least :o Gonna be a real long week!!!

[GalvestonDuck]

OMG!! I just wanna hug you guys to death when you illustrate with graphics and then offer such an educational explanation of what you are seeing.

Thank you, Mike!!

[WeatherEmperor]

OMG!! I just wanna hug you guys to death when you illustrate with graphics and then offer such an educational explanation of what you are seeing.

Thank you, Mike!!

LOL. Uh.....it aint that romantic man. Take it easy! Nah just messin with ya bro.

[zoeyann]

Agreed Duck! I'm getting smarter by the day on this board.

[Lindaloo]

OMG!! I just wanna hug you guys to death when you illustrate with graphics and then offer such an educational explanation of what you are seeing.

Thank you, Mike!!

LOL. Uh.....it aint that romantic man. Take it easy! Nah just messin with ya bro.

bro be a sista. lol.

[Pebbles]

Hehe yeah..he's a she *winks and tickles* and I have to say I agree with HER 100% I don't post much but come here because i like other's thoughts on thing and mostly because so many great graphics float around which helps the way overworked stay at home mom. Allows me to jump on when I have 5 or 10 minutes to spare and flip through things rather quickly and get a good overall picture of what's going on..so I will add my *BIG BEAR HUGS* to ducks

[GalvestonDuck]

*snicker* Ditto to the above!

You know, weathergeeks can be chicks!

[bkhusky2]

Sure is going to be a long week, what do you guys think it will do if it were to get into the Caribbean? Think the Gulf Coast would then be at risk?

[GalvestonDuck]

I think we just need to see what's happening climatologically after she gets there in order to have an idea of what she might do after that.

BTW, Mike -- good luck getting your computer back up to speed!

[Deenac813]

As always your posts are wonderful! I really understand when you say something & I think you are a wonderful forecaster!

Deena

[Pebbles]

*snicker* Ditto to the above!

You know, weathergeeks can be chicks!

Yeah..iz can be a weather geek too..and not only am I a woman...IZ PREGNANT ...but I promise this time..I am NOT sharing my preggo hormones with this storm! She hormonal ENOUGH!