5 PM tropical wx discussion

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good evening folks. Well as the 5 PM discussion states from the NHC, "The Guillotine has fallen on Henri." It's pretty obvious that's the case because it's no longer a tropical system. It's extratropical or lost it's tropical characteristics.

At 5 PM EDT, the center of poorly defined tropical Depression Henri was located near latitude 33.0 north, longitude 75.0 west or about 160 miles south southeast of Cape hatteras, North carolina. The depression is moving northeast at near 7 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds 30 mph, minimum central pressure 1006 mb. It is a bit gusty today and this evening along the Virginia and North Carolina coast with higher waves and rip currents. That could extend even into Maryland latert tonite into Tuesday as a 1031 mb high moves in from the north and closes in to what's left of Henri. So a pressure gradient will set up. As for Henri, The guillotine has definitely fallen, the last advisory has been written on this system unless it regenerates, which appears unlikely at this point as it's first merged with a frontal boundary. Secondly southwest winds aloft are very strong as an upper trough and upper level low pressure system approaches the system!!!

As for Isabel, she is becoming a huge monster, perhaps worse than fabian if this keeps up. Isabel could become a category 4 hurricane later this evening.

At 5 PM EDT, the center of major Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 17.9 north, longitude 43.7 west or about 1195 miles east of the norther Leeward Islands. Isabel is moving towards the west northwest at near 14 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 125 mph with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a dangerous and very strong category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale. Further strengthening is expected for the next 24 hours and Isabel will likely be our second category 4 hurricane of the Atlantic season later this evening, I'll say that right now.

Minimum central pressure has dropped 10 mb in 6 hours from 962 mb at 11 am to 952 mb at 5 PM EDT. 952 mb/28.11 inches is the current minimum central pressure and rapid deepening is likely throughout the evening into the nighttime hours as well. Isabel should peak at 145 mph if not a bit stronger tomorrow through the forecast period. Nothing is against this from maintaining dangerous hurricane strength through 5-6 days. Outflow is perfect, waters are warm. It's about as good as it gets for your major hurricanes and this one has it all!!! Keep an eye on this monster in the northern leewards and Puerto Rico through Saturday.

Tropical depression #14 has changed little at 5 PM EDT. Max winds are still 35 mph. Movement is towards the west northwest at 6 mph and minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. All interests in the Cape Verde Islands should monitor this depression very carefully as the center is about 200 miles south southeast of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. The center of TD14 is 20 miles closer to the Cape Verde Islands during the past 6 hours.

More updates later tonite!

Jim

[JCT777]

Good update, Jim. Looks like Henri has been sent packing, and TD 14 is taking its good ol' time getting its act together. So the only game in town - aka Isabel - is really the one to watch. I agree that the northern Caribbean islands should watch carefully, especially if Isabel starts moving more west, or even slightly south of due west, as some models are indicating.

[rainstorm]

thanks jim