Mon. Euro has Isabel near 22N,75W moving WNW

#1 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:31 pm

Tonight's just released ECMWF has Isabel near 19N, 65W on day 5; 20N, 70W on day 6; and 22N, 75W on day 7. So, it has a steady WNW movement at near 5 degrees of longitude per day from days 5-7. This at least implies a threat to south Florida on ~day 8 and implies ot me a POSSIBLE move into the Gulf on day 8 as it has a pretty large 588+ dm 500 mb ridge north of it fwiw as this ridge extends westward all of the way to Mexico albeit with a very slight weakness north of Isabel.

My research of the period 1851-2002 shows that there has not been a single storm that first became a hurricane east of 40W to go into the Gulf without at least first crossing some portion of Florida. The two that did reach the Gulf at some point were:

1) storm #4 of 1947, which first crossed south Florida as a cat. 4 and then went into LA;

2) Donna of 1960, which barely went over the extreme SE Gulf after crossing the Florida Keys and before recurving back into the SW Florida peninsula as a cat. 4.

Larry

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:38 pm

If that is true that 19-65 position would mean a very bad situation for the islands and Puerto Rico but let's see in reallity if that happens.

ameriwx2003 · #3 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:38 pm

larry.. thanks for the info . So far the EURO has been the most consistent model with Isabel it seems . Lets see how this all pans out:):), Interesting week ahead I think is a pretty safe statement:):):)

wow · #4 Postby **wow** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:If that is true that 19-65 position would mean a very bad situation for the islands and Puerto Rico but let's see in reallity if that happens.

a very BAD situtation, you mean. correct? :wink:

#5 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:43 pm

I guess I should add day 4 when it is near 18N, 60W.
So to summarize:
18N, 60W day 4
19N, 65W day 5
20N, 70W day 6
22N, 75W day 7

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:45 pm

Larry is there a grafic of that euro run to see how the line goes?

PuertoRicoLibre · #7 Postby **PuertoRicoLibre** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 7:06 pm

19N and 65W that is NOT good... :33: Yes, it would be nice to have the plotted line at hand

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 7:07 pm

cycloneye wrote:Larry is there a grafic of that euro run to see how the line goes?

Luis, I'll create an animated loop later and post it in it's own thread...

SF

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 7:08 pm

Ok stormsfury.

wow · #10 Postby **wow** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 7:14 pm

day 6 euro

stormernie · #11 Postby **stormernie** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 7:24 pm

Remember Debbie - I think this is a good possibility given latest development of a westward turn.

Ernie

Mon. Euro has Isabel near 22N,75W moving WNW

Mon. Euro has Isabel near 22N,75W moving WNW

I share on that request

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